Group F · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Japan
4:0
Tunisia

أقوى مواجهة في اليوم بحسب مجموع تصنيف الفيفا متاحة مجانًا للجميع: التوقعات الكاملة وأداة المتابعة المباشرة الكاملة. كل المباريات الأخرى تتطلب Standard Pass. اطّلع على الـPass

Live descriptive stats

JapanTunisia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Japan1.282.07+0.79
Tunisia0.700.05−0.65

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
11
2
Shots on target
5
0
Possession (%)
62%
38%
Corners
5
3
Fouls
15
8
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Japan defend deep and give Tunisia the ball. The question is whether Tunisia's pragmatic approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through. Tunisia's aggressive press (PPDA 22.5) against Japan's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.7) creates a clear territory question: can Tunisia force errors high up, or will Japan play through the press and find space behind it? Tunisia generate 26% of their xG from set pieces. Foul discipline and aerial duels from Japan matter more here than usual.

What decides it

Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Tunisia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Daichi Kamada (6.2%) and Dylan Bronn (5.3%).

Off the pitch

Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Sabri Lamouchi (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Yūto Nagatomo. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Japan or Tunisia.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 2
Date:
20 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Japan

Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.

Tunisia

Tunisia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

مباشرإحصاءات وصفية واحتمالية فوز مباشرة بتأخير · تتحدَّث كل ~30 ثانية

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Japan (above the line)Tunisia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 4' · D. KamadaGoal, 31' · A. UedaGoal, 69' · J. ItoGoal, 83' · A. Ueda

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Japan minus Tunisia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

JapanTunisia
  • GoalD. Kamada· K. NakamuraD. Kamada scores for Japan.4'
  • GoalA. Ueda· K. ItakuraA. Ueda scores for Japan.31'
  • 46'SubstitutionE. Saad· I. GharbiTunisia change: I. Gharbi.
  • 46'SubstitutionD. Bronn· M. Ben HamidaTunisia change: M. Ben Hamida.
  • 65'SubstitutionS. Tounekti· F. ChaouatTunisia change: F. Chaouat.
  • GoalJ. Ito· A. UedaJ. Ito scores for Japan.69'
  • SubstitutionD. Kamada· J. SuzukiJapan change: J. Suzuki.73'
  • SubstitutionR. Doan· Y. SugawaraJapan change: Y. Sugawara.74'
  • SubstitutionK. Nakamura· Y. SuzukiJapan change: Y. Suzuki.79'
  • SubstitutionT. Tomiyasu· A. SekoJapan change: A. Seko.79'
  • GoalA. Ueda· K. SanoA. Ueda scores for Japan.83'
  • SubstitutionA. Ueda· K. GotoJapan change: K. Goto.84'
  • 90'+1SubstitutionA. Abdi· E. AchouriTunisia change: E. Achouri.
  • 90'+1SubstitutionE. Skhiri· R. KhediraTunisia change: R. Khedira.

Player involvement

Japan

AA. Ueda31' Goal · 69' Assist · 83' Goal · 84' On
D. Kamada4' Goal · 73' On
J. Ito69' Goal
AK. Nakamura4' Assist · 79' On
AK. Itakura31' Assist
AK. Sano83' Assist
نموذج ما قبل المباراةمُجمَّد قبل الانطلاق

Pre-match forecast

Japan win
57.7%
Draw
28.3%
Tunisia win
14.0%
Japan
1.28
expected
goals
Tunisia
0.70

الاحتمالية المنشورة لهذه المباراة تُثبَّت عند تأكيد التشكيلة (قبل ضربة البداية بساعة تقريبًا) ولا تتحدَّث بعدها. هذا هو الرقم الذي تحاسبه المراجعة بعد المباراة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة في قسم البث المباشر تقدير منفصل ومتأخر ووصفي؛ ولا تحل محل التوقع المنشور.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    16.9%
  • 0–0
    14.5%
  • 1–1
    13.1%
  • 2–0
    11.3%
  • 0–1
    8.9%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

4 – 0
Japan win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Japan win· realised
    54.6%
  • Draw
    27.7%
  • Tunisia win
    17.7%
Brier score
0.314
Log loss
0.605
xG (final / predicted)
2.07 / 1.16 · Japan
0.05 / 0.80 · Tunisia
P(realised outcome)
54.6%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة الكامل →

كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.