Group F · Matchday 2
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Japan win54.6%
- Draw27.7%
- Tunisia win17.7%
Analysis
The model gives Japan a moderate advantage at 54.6% versus 17.7% for Tunisia (draw 27.7%). The Elo gap is substantial at 268 points in Japan's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group F fixture with advance probabilities of 84.9% for Japan and 34.1% for Tunisia.
Tactical matchup
Japan (low block) meet Tunisia (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Tunisia press significantly higher (PPDA 22.5) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Tunisia carry a notably high set-piece xG share (26%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.
Key battlegrounds
Japan will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. Tunisia adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Daichi Kamada (P(scores) 6.2%) against Seifeddine Jaziri (5.6%) — their impact could prove decisive. Tunisia play a more direct game while Japan build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Japan's Hajime Moriyasu (8.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sabri Lamouchi (0.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Yūto Nagatomo, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Japan or Tunisia.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 2
Several players are doubtful for this match, including a key defender for one side. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Japan v Tunisia plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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