Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Group C · Matchday 3
MoroccovsHaiti
·18:00 local
Latest news & match context
Team news
- How Haiti and Scotland match up ahead of Boston’s first World Cup match · MassLive · 11 Jun
- Aguerd Ruled Out of Morocco’s 2026 World Cup Squad, Marwane Saadane Called Up · Morocco World News · 11 Jun
- Football: Soccer-Morocco forced into two injury changes ahead of World Cup opener · thestar.com.my · 11 Jun
Match conditions
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 3
Both sides face key availability concerns ahead of this match; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Match-outcome probability
- Morocco win74.6%
- Draw18.9%
- Haiti win6.5%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Haiti #84 in the world; the model ranks them #39 in this tournament field, 45 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Morocco v Haiti plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.