Our predictions draw on dozens of data sources — from 49,000 historical international match results to individual player statistics, manager profiles, and team playing styles. This page is the complete inventory: every dataset we use, what it contributes, and how rigorously we've tested its impact.
What shapes a match
What data goes into the model
요약 + 샘플 · 전체 문서는 3,281단어
요약
샘플
A note on importance claims
Most data inputs in this project have not been rigorously feature-importance-ranked. The team-strength models (Dixon-Coles, Hierarchical Poisson, Elo) have been compared head-to-head on a 940-match holdout window with Brier, log-loss, and ECE reported in documentation/methodology.md. Beyond that core comparison, ablations on individual context features have not been run. Where backtest evidence exists, this page cites it. Where it does not, the page says so. No importance numbers on this page are fabricated. A reader who notices an invented "Brier improvement of N points" would correctly stop trusting the rest of the document; if the number isn't here, it's because the ablation hasn't been done.
전체 문서
Pro Pass
전체 문서를 원하시나요?
What data goes into the model은(는) 3,281단어입니다. Pass를 구매하면 이 문서와 모든 연구 노트 전문, 경기별 확률, 4개 모델 비교, 경기별 전술 분석을 잠금 해제합니다.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.