Our predictions draw on dozens of data sources — from 49,000 historical international match results to individual player statistics, manager profiles, and team playing styles. This page is the complete inventory: every dataset we use, what it contributes, and how rigorously we've tested its impact.
What shapes a match
What data goes into the model
Résumé + extrait · document complet de 3,281 mots
Résumé
Extrait
A note on importance claims
Most data inputs in this project have not been rigorously feature-importance-ranked. The team-strength models (Dixon-Coles, Hierarchical Poisson, Elo) have been compared head-to-head on a 940-match holdout window with Brier, log-loss, and ECE reported in documentation/methodology.md. Beyond that core comparison, ablations on individual context features have not been run. Where backtest evidence exists, this page cites it. Where it does not, the page says so. No importance numbers on this page are fabricated. A reader who notices an invented "Brier improvement of N points" would correctly stop trusting the rest of the document; if the number isn't here, it's because the ablation hasn't been done.
Document complet
Pro Pass
Vous voulez le document complet ?
What data goes into the model fait 3,281 mots. Le Pass débloque ce document et chaque note de recherche en intégralité, plus les probabilités par match, la comparaison des quatre modèles et l'analyse tactique par match.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.