Group B · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Qatar defend deep and give Canada the ball. The question is whether Canada's pragmatic approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through. Canada's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Qatar's deeper build-up (PPDA 35.0) creates a clear territory question: can Canada force errors high up, or will Qatar play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Canada adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Qatar defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Jonathan David's 12.2% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Qatar's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Qatar travel 11,697km while Canada are essentially at home. That journey shows up in second-half intensity.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Hassan Al-Haydos. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Canada or Qatar.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 18 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Rest differential: Canada have had 6 days since their previous match versus 5 for Qatar. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Canada and Qatar both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Qatar: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardD. Cornelius· TrippingD. Cornelius is booked — Tripping.9'
- GoalC. LarinC. Larin scores for Canada.16'
- GoalJ. DavidJ. David scores for Canada.29'
- 33'Red cardH. Al Amin· FoulH. Al Amin is sent off — Foul.
- 40'SubstitutionY. Abdurisag· S. Al BrakeQatar change: S. Al Brake.
- GoalJ. DavidJ. David scores for Canada.45'+3
- 46'SubstitutionEdmilson Junior· A. FathiQatar change: A. Fathi.
- 46'SubstitutionJ. Gaber· M. Al MannaiQatar change: M. Al Mannai.
- SubstitutionD. Cornelius· M. BombitoCanada change: M. Bombito.46'
- 53'Red cardA. O. Madibo· Serious foulA. O. Madibo is sent off — Serious foul.
- SubstitutionI. Kone· N. SalibaCanada change: N. Saliba.57'
- 59'SubstitutionA. Afif· A. Al HussainQatar change: A. Al Hussain.
- 62'Yellow cardA. Fathi· TrippingA. Fathi is booked — Tripping.
- GoalN. SalibaN. Saliba scores for Canada.64'
- SubstitutionL. De Fougerolles· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.71'
- SubstitutionA. Ahmed· T. OluwaseyiCanada change: T. Oluwaseyi.71'
- Own goalM. Al MannaiM. Al Mannai turns it into their own net — credited to Qatar.75'
- SubstitutionT. Buchanan· N. SigurCanada change: N. Sigur.83'
- 87'SubstitutionA. Fathi· Lucas MendesQatar change: Lucas Mendes.
- GoalJ. David· N. SalibaJ. David scores for Canada.90'+2
Player involvement
Canada
Qatar
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Canada win· realised64.3%
- Draw23.1%
- Qatar win12.7%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.