Group K · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first. Colombia will expect to hold 53% possession. Uzbekistan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Colombia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. James Rodríguez's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Uzbekistan's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Uzbekistan travel 13,062km, 4x Colombia's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential. Néstor Lorenzo (4 years in charge of Colombia) vs Fabio Cannavaro (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Uzbekistan just 14.2% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Uzbekistan or Colombia.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 17 Jun
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan come in at close to full strength.
Colombia
Colombia come in at close to full strength.
Uzbekistan and Colombia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Uzbekistan minus Colombia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 7'Yellow cardJ. Mojica· TrippingJ. Mojica is booked — Tripping.
- Yellow cardA. Khusanov· TrippingA. Khusanov is booked — Tripping.34'
- 40'GoalD. Munoz· L. DiazD. Munoz scores for Colombia.
- SubstitutionO. Urunov· D. KhamdamovUzbekistan change: D. Khamdamov.46'
- SubstitutionS. Nasrullaev· F. SayfievUzbekistan change: F. Sayfiev.46'
- GoalA. FayzullaevA. Fayzullaev scores for Uzbekistan.60'
- 65'GoalL. Diaz· G. PuertaL. Diaz scores for Colombia.
- 72'SubstitutionJ. Rodriguez· J. CampazColombia change: J. Campaz.
- SubstitutionA. Fayzullaev· A. AmonovUzbekistan change: A. Amonov.77'
- SubstitutionR. Ashurmatov· J. UrozovUzbekistan change: J. Urozov.77'
- 80'SubstitutionL. Suarez· C. HernandezColombia change: C. Hernandez.
- 80'SubstitutionG. Puerta· R. RiosColombia change: R. Rios.
- 90'+3SubstitutionL. Diaz· A. GomezColombia change: A. Gomez.
- 90'+3SubstitutionJ. Arias· K. CastanoColombia change: K. Castano.
- SubstitutionE. Shomurodov· I. SergeevUzbekistan change: I. Sergeev.90'+3
- 90'+9GoalJ. Campaz· C. HernandezJ. Campaz scores for Colombia.
Player involvement
Uzbekistan
Colombia
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–117.3%
- 0–216.7%
- 0–310.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–19.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.