Group K · Matchday 1
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Uzbekistan win12.4%
- Draw25.8%
- Colombia win61.8%
Analysis
The model rates Colombia as clear favourites at 61.8%, with Uzbekistan at 12.4% and the draw at 25.8%. The Elo gap is substantial at 248 points in Colombia's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group K, Colombia are expected to advance (95.3%) while Uzbekistan face a tighter path (38.8%) — this result could be decisive for Uzbekistan's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Uzbekistan (balanced) meet Colombia (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Colombia typically dominate possession (53%) compared to Uzbekistan's 44% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Colombia adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Eldor Shomurodov (P(scores) 2.3%) against James Rodríguez (8.8%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Uzbekistan face a 13,062km journey to the venue versus Colombia's 3,153km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. Colombia's Néstor Lorenzo (4.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Fabio Cannavaro (1.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
At 12.4%, an Uzbekistan result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces. A landmark fixture for Colombia — 7 caps for the senior side, 27 at kickoff.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
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- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 1
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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