予測 vs 結果 · Group F · Matchday 1

Netherlands vs Japan

2026-06-14

Post-match calibration

2 – 2
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win
    44.6%
  • Draw· realised
    25.0%
  • Japan win
    30.3%
Brier score
0.853
Log loss
1.385
xG (final / predicted)
0.79 / 1.60 · Netherlands
0.54 / 1.03 · Japan
P(realised outcome)
25.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Against the forecastThe model rated this outcome at 25.0%.
Late goalD. Kamada (88')

Key moments

51'⚽
Goal

V. van Dijk (Netherlands)

R. Gravenberch

57'⚽
Goal

K. Nakamura (Japan)

T. Kubo

64'⚽
Goal

C. Summerville (Netherlands)

R. Gravenberch

88'⚽
GoalLate

D. Kamada (Japan)

K. Ogawa

Match statistics

NETJapan
60%
Possession
40%
10
Shots
10
6
On target
3
0.79
xG
0.54
5
Corners
4
7
Fouls
7
3
Yellows
0

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (2–2) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.

#11–112.4%
#21–011.0%
#32–19.5%
#42–09.2%
#50–07.8%

Team performance

NetherlandsC+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Above profile7/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
Below profile4/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team's current form is inconsistent, showing attacking prowess but struggling to maintain defensive solidity.

JapanB
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Below profile3/10
Chance creation
Above profile7/10
Shot quality
Above profile8/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team showed strong character to come back twice and secure a draw against a formidable opponent.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Netherlands
8
Virgil van Dijk51'–51'

Scored a powerful header to give the Netherlands the lead.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

51'Virgil van Dijk scores for Netherlands with a powerful header.
7
Crysencio Summerville60'–69'

Scored a strong strike to put the Netherlands ahead but also received a yellow card.

1goals1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

60'Crysencio Summerville receives a yellow card.
64'Crysencio Summerville scores for Netherlands with a strong strike.
69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
7
Bart Verbruggen

Made several key saves, preventing Japan from scoring on multiple occasions.

1saves
▼

Match timeline

6
Teun Koopmeiners69'–69'

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
6
Quinten Timber69'–69'

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
6
Tijjani Reijnders69'–69'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

69'Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville, and Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders for Netherlands.
6
Brian Brobbey84'–84'

Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

84'Brian Brobbey replaces Cody Gakpo for Netherlands.
6
Cody Gakpo84'–84'

Played for most of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

84'Brian Brobbey replaces Cody Gakpo for Netherlands.
5
Micky van de Ven90'–90'

Received a yellow card late in the match.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

90'Micky van de Ven receives a yellow card.
Japan
8
Keito Nakamura57'–57'

Scored a well-placed shot to equalize for Japan.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

57'Keito Nakamura scores for Japan with a well-placed shot.
8
Koki Ogawa

Came off the bench to score a vital equalizer for Japan.

7
Zion Suzuki

Made several crucial saves to deny the Netherlands scoring opportunities.

1saves
▼

Match timeline

6
Junya Ito

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

6
Daizen Maeda65'–65'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

65'Junya Ito replaces Daizen Maeda for Japan.
6
Takefusa Kubo74'–74'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

74'Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo, and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Japan.
6
Takehiro Tomiyasu74'–74'

Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

74'Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo, and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Japan.
6
Tsuyoshi Watanabe74'–74'

Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

74'Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo, and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Japan.
6
Kento Shiogai83'–83'

Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact.

▼

Match timeline

83'Kento Shiogai replaces Ayase Ueda for Japan.
6
Ayase Ueda83'–83'

Played for most of the match without any specific mentions.

▼

Match timeline

83'Kento Shiogai replaces Ayase Ueda for Japan.

Match observations

  • The match was a hard-fought contest with both teams displaying strong attacking intent.
  • Netherlands gained the lead twice, first through a header from Virgil van Dijk and then a strike from Crysencio Summerville.
  • Japan showed resilience, equalising on both occasions with goals from Keito Nakamura and Koki Ogawa.
← 試合前の予測ライブトラッカー →

読み方。 1試合の Brier score と log loss はノイズが多く、重要なのは多くの試合にわたるキャリブレーションです。この試合別振り返りは、総合キャリブレーション・スコアボードの1行に相当します。 /docs/calibration/. ここに表示される試合前の確率はキックオフ前に固定されたもので、試合中に再計算されていません。