Pronóstico frente a resultado · Group F · Matchday 1
Sweden vs Tunisia
2026-06-14
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Sweden win· realised42.4%
- Draw28.1%
- Tunisia win29.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
Y. Ayari (Sweden)
A. Isak (Sweden)
V. Gyokeres
O. Rekik (Tunisia)
H. Mejbri
V. Gyokeres (Sweden)
A. Isak
M. Svanberg (Sweden)
A. Isak
Y. Ayari (Sweden)
L. Bergvall
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (5–1) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.
Team performance
The team is in excellent attacking form, demonstrating clinical finishing and coordinated offensive movements.
The team's current form appears poor, marked by defensive fragility and critical individual errors.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
9Yasin Ayari6'–95'Scored two crucial goals, including the opener and a powerful late strike, demonstrating excellent finishing.
2goals▼
Scored two crucial goals, including the opener and a powerful late strike, demonstrating excellent finishing.
Match timeline
9Viktor Gyökeres29'–89'Scored two goals and provided an assist, showcasing clinical finishing and playmaking ability.
2goals1shots▼
Scored two goals and provided an assist, showcasing clinical finishing and playmaking ability.
Match timeline
9Mattias Svanberg83'–85'Scored two goals shortly after coming on as a substitute, demonstrating immediate impact and clinical finishing.
2goals▼
Scored two goals shortly after coming on as a substitute, demonstrating immediate impact and clinical finishing.
Match timeline
8Alexander Isak29'–58'Scored a goal and was instrumental in creating another by winning possession high up the pitch.
1goals▼
Scored a goal and was instrumental in creating another by winning possession high up the pitch.
Match timeline
7Kristoffer NordfeldtMade several important saves, preventing Tunisia from scoring more goals.
1saves▼
Made several important saves, preventing Tunisia from scoring more goals.
Match timeline
6Elliot Stroud64'–64'Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
Match timeline
6Gabriel Gudmundsson64'–64'Played a significant portion of the match without any distinct positive or negative contributions.
▼
Played a significant portion of the match without any distinct positive or negative contributions.
Match timeline
6Jesper Karlström83'–83'Played a significant portion of the match without any distinct positive or negative contributions.
▼
Played a significant portion of the match without any distinct positive or negative contributions.
Match timeline
6Daniel Svensson89'–89'Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
▼
Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
Match timeline
8Omar Rekik12'–42'Scored both of Tunisia's goals with headers from set-pieces, showing good aerial ability.
2goals▼
Scored both of Tunisia's goals with headers from set-pieces, showing good aerial ability.
Match timeline
7Hannibal Mejbri12'–12'Provided a dangerous cross that directly led to one of Tunisia's goals.
▼
Provided a dangerous cross that directly led to one of Tunisia's goals.
Match timeline
6Sebastian Tounekti71'–71'Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
Match timeline
4Rani Khedira40'–40'Received a yellow card for a late challenge, indicating a disciplinary issue.
1 yellow▼
Received a yellow card for a late challenge, indicating a disciplinary issue.
Match timeline
4Ellyes Skhiri71'–71'Lost possession in a dangerous area, directly leading to a goal for the opposition.
▼
Lost possession in a dangerous area, directly leading to a goal for the opposition.
Match timeline
3Mouhib Chamakh29'–29'Made a costly error that directly led to one of Sweden's goals.
▼
Made a costly error that directly led to one of Sweden's goals.
Match timeline
Match observations
- The match saw Sweden secure a commanding 5-1 victory over Tunisia.
- Sweden's offensive unit displayed impressive coordination, with multiple forwards finding the net.
- Tunisia managed to reduce the deficit with a header, but defensive lapses allowed Sweden to consistently extend their advantage.