Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Group E · Matchday 1
Ivory CoastvsEcuador
·19:00 local
Snapshot · 2026-05-28Plantilla de Ivory Coast →Plantilla de Ecuador →Seguimiento en vivo →Enfrentamiento directo →
Latest news & match context
Team news
No recent headlines for Ivory Coast or Ecuador.
Match conditions
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 1
Both teams have minor availability concerns ahead of this match; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Match-outcome probability
- Ivory Coast win17.9%
- Draw29.8%
- Ecuador win52.2%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Ivory Coast #42 in the world; the model ranks them #30 in this tournament field, 12 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Ivory Coast v Ecuador plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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