Group B · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Qatar defend deep and give Switzerland the ball. The question is whether Switzerland's pragmatic approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through. Switzerland's aggressive press (PPDA 22.8) against Qatar's deeper build-up (PPDA 35.0) creates a clear territory question: can Switzerland force errors high up, or will Qatar play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Qatar defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Switzerland adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Akram Afif (4.4%) and Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%).
Off the pitch
Murat Yakin (5 years in charge of Switzerland) vs Julen Lopetegui (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Qatar just 9.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Qatar or Switzerland.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 13 Jun
Qatar
Qatar come in at close to full strength.
Switzerland
Switzerland come in at close to full strength.
Qatar and Switzerland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Qatar minus Switzerland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardM. Abunada· Delay of gameM. Abunada is booked — Delay of game.16'
- 17'Penalty scoredB. EmboloB. Embolo converts from the spot for Switzerland.
- Yellow cardJ. Gaber· RoughingJ. Gaber is booked — Roughing.23'
- 42'Yellow cardD. Zakaria· TrippingD. Zakaria is booked — Tripping.
- SubstitutionA. Al Oui· A. FathiQatar change: A. Fathi.60'
- SubstitutionJ. Gaber· K. BoudiafQatar change: K. Boudiaf.60'
- SubstitutionY. Abdurisag· A. AlaaeldinQatar change: A. Alaaeldin.60'
- 65'SubstitutionD. Ndoye· J. ManzambiSwitzerland change: J. Manzambi.
- 65'SubstitutionM. Aebischer· F. RiederSwitzerland change: F. Rieder.
- SubstitutionA. O. Madibo· M. Al MannaiQatar change: M. Al Mannai.79'
- 79'SubstitutionR. Vargas· Z. AmdouniSwitzerland change: Z. Amdouni.
- SubstitutionEdmilson Junior· H. Al HaydosQatar change: H. Al Haydos.88'
- 89'SubstitutionR. Rodriguez· M. MuheimSwitzerland change: M. Muheim.
- 89'SubstitutionR. Freuler· A. JashariSwitzerland change: A. Jashari.
- Own goalM. MuheimM. Muheim turns it into their own net — credited to Switzerland.90'+4
Player involvement
Qatar
Switzerland
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–213.5%
- 0–311.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–47.6%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Qatar win8.4%
- Draw· realised18.4%
- Switzerland win73.2%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.