Group B · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Qatar
1:1
Switzerland

أقوى مواجهة في اليوم بحسب مجموع تصنيف الفيفا متاحة مجانًا للجميع: التوقعات الكاملة وأداة المتابعة المباشرة الكاملة. كل المباريات الأخرى تتطلب Standard Pass. اطّلع على الـPass

Live descriptive stats

QatarSwitzerland
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Qatar0.620.76+0.14
Switzerland2.593.24+0.65

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
7
26
Shots on target
4
7
Possession (%)
32%
68%
Corners
3
10
Fouls
12
11
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Qatar defend deep and give Switzerland the ball. The question is whether Switzerland's pragmatic approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through. Switzerland's aggressive press (PPDA 22.8) against Qatar's deeper build-up (PPDA 35.0) creates a clear territory question: can Switzerland force errors high up, or will Qatar play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Qatar defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Switzerland adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Akram Afif (4.4%) and Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%).

Off the pitch

Murat Yakin (5 years in charge of Switzerland) vs Julen Lopetegui (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Qatar just 9.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Qatar or Switzerland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 1
Date:
13 Jun
Availability

Qatar

Qatar come in at close to full strength.

Switzerland

Switzerland come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Qatar and Switzerland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

مباشرإحصاءات وصفية واحتمالية فوز مباشرة بتأخير · تتحدَّث كل ~30 ثانية

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Qatar (above the line)Switzerland (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 17' · B. EmboloGoal, 90' · M. Muheim

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Qatar minus Switzerland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

QatarSwitzerland
  • Yellow cardM. Abunada· Delay of gameM. Abunada is booked — Delay of game.16'
  • 17'Penalty scoredB. EmboloB. Embolo converts from the spot for Switzerland.
  • Yellow cardJ. Gaber· RoughingJ. Gaber is booked — Roughing.23'
  • 42'Yellow cardD. Zakaria· TrippingD. Zakaria is booked — Tripping.
  • SubstitutionA. Al Oui· A. FathiQatar change: A. Fathi.60'
  • SubstitutionJ. Gaber· K. BoudiafQatar change: K. Boudiaf.60'
  • SubstitutionY. Abdurisag· A. AlaaeldinQatar change: A. Alaaeldin.60'
  • 65'SubstitutionD. Ndoye· J. ManzambiSwitzerland change: J. Manzambi.
  • 65'SubstitutionM. Aebischer· F. RiederSwitzerland change: F. Rieder.
  • SubstitutionA. O. Madibo· M. Al MannaiQatar change: M. Al Mannai.79'
  • 79'SubstitutionR. Vargas· Z. AmdouniSwitzerland change: Z. Amdouni.
  • SubstitutionEdmilson Junior· H. Al HaydosQatar change: H. Al Haydos.88'
  • 89'SubstitutionR. Rodriguez· M. MuheimSwitzerland change: M. Muheim.
  • 89'SubstitutionR. Freuler· A. JashariSwitzerland change: A. Jashari.
  • Own goalM. MuheimM. Muheim turns it into their own net — credited to Switzerland.90'+4

Player involvement

Qatar

M. Abunada16' Yellow card
J. Gaber23' Yellow card · 60' On

Switzerland

B. Embolo17' Penalty scored
D. Zakaria42' Yellow card
نموذج ما قبل المباراةمُجمَّد قبل الانطلاق

Pre-match forecast

Qatar win
2.5%
Draw
16.3%
Switzerland win
81.2%
Qatar
0.62
expected
goals
Switzerland
2.59

الاحتمالية المنشورة لهذه المباراة تُثبَّت عند تأكيد التشكيلة (قبل ضربة البداية بساعة تقريبًا) ولا تتحدَّث بعدها. هذا هو الرقم الذي تحاسبه المراجعة بعد المباراة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة في قسم البث المباشر تقدير منفصل ومتأخر ووصفي؛ ولا تحل محل التوقع المنشور.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–2
    13.5%
  • 0–3
    11.7%
  • 0–1
    10.1%
  • 1–2
    8.4%
  • 0–4
    7.6%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Qatar win
    8.4%
  • Draw· realised
    18.4%
  • Switzerland win
    73.2%
Brier score
1.209
Log loss
1.692
xG (final / predicted)
0.76 / 0.72 · Qatar
3.24 / 2.54 · Switzerland
P(realised outcome)
18.4%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة الكامل →

كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.