12 June 2026 · edwin-chan
2 matches on June 12, led by United States v Paraguay (32.2% / 29.4% / 38.3%). Expected goals, scorelines, first-goal timing, and the Elo-baseline comparison for every match. Standard Pass.
2 group-stage matches kick off on June 12. The headline is United States v Paraguay. The model leans slightly to Paraguay, but the gap is small enough that any of the three outcomes is plausible. Headline probabilities for the full day first; the depth below the fold is the same per-match detail the fixture pages carry.
| Match | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States v Paraguay | 32.2% | 29.4% | 38.3% |
| Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina | 57.9% | 24.5% | 17.6% |
Standard Pass
The rest of this post breaks every match down with the same model that powers the fixture pages.
Expected goals, every match
Most likely scorelines
First-goal timing
Model vs Elo baseline
Standard Pass
Per-match expected goals, the most likely scorelines, first-goal timing, and where the full model departs from a plain Elo baseline. Every match day through the final, plus the full forecast on all 104 fixture pages.
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This note draws on the same calibrated model that powers the full 2026 World Cup forecast — win probabilities for every fixture, projected line-ups, and the tournament-winner picture, refreshed on every run.
Explore the forecast →OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
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