Group B · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a pragmatic system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.
What decides it
Both sides run the same system (pragmatic), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. Jonathan David carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.8% vs 7.0%).
Off the pitch
Switzerland travel 8,347km while Canada are essentially at home. That journey shows up in second-half intensity. Murat Yakin (5 years in charge of Switzerland) vs Jesse Marsch (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Remo Freuler. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Canada or Switzerland.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 24 Jun
Canada
Canada come in at close to full strength.
Switzerland
Switzerland come in at close to full strength.
Canada and Switzerland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Switzerland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardC. Larin· Unsportsmanlike conductC. Larin is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.32'
- 32'Yellow cardG. Xhaka· Unsportsmanlike conductG. Xhaka is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
- 46'GoalR. Vargas· J. ManzambiR. Vargas scores for Switzerland.
- 57'GoalJ. Manzambi· B. EmboloJ. Manzambi scores for Switzerland.
- SubstitutionM. Choiniere· S. EustaquioCanada change: S. Eustaquio.58'
- SubstitutionA. Ahmed· L. MillarCanada change: L. Millar.58'
- SubstitutionC. Larin· T. OluwaseyiCanada change: T. Oluwaseyi.58'
- 74'SubstitutionL. Jaquez· S. WidmerSwitzerland change: S. Widmer.
- 74'SubstitutionD. Sow· M. AebischerSwitzerland change: M. Aebischer.
- SubstitutionT. Buchanan· P. DavidCanada change: P. David.75'
- GoalP. David· N. SalibaP. David scores for Canada.76'
- 80'SubstitutionR. Vargas· D. NdoyeSwitzerland change: D. Ndoye.
- SubstitutionR. Laryea· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.83'
- 85'SubstitutionJ. Manzambi· C. FassnachtSwitzerland change: C. Fassnacht.
- 85'SubstitutionB. Embolo· C. IttenSwitzerland change: C. Itten.
- Yellow cardL. Millar· HoldingL. Millar is booked — Holding.87'
Player involvement
Canada
Switzerland
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.