Group H · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Spain will dominate the ball. Whether Saudi Arabia can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Spain's possession converts to chances. Spain will expect to hold 68% possession. Saudi Arabia need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Spain's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Mikel Oyarzabal's 13.9% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Saudi Arabia's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Luis de la Fuente (4 years in charge of Spain) vs Georgios Donis (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Saudi Arabia just 5.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Spain or Saudi Arabia.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 21 Jun
Spain
Spain come in at close to full strength.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia come in at close to full strength.
Spain and Saudi Arabia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Spain minus Saudi Arabia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalLamine Yamal· M. OyarzabalLamine Yamal scores for Spain.10'
- GoalM. Oyarzabal· A. LaporteM. Oyarzabal scores for Spain.21'
- GoalM. Oyarzabal· D. OlmoM. Oyarzabal scores for Spain.24'
- 30'Yellow cardS. Al Dawsari· RoughingS. Al Dawsari is booked — Roughing.
- SubstitutionLamine Yamal· Y. PinoSpain change: Y. Pino.46'
- SubstitutionM. Oyarzabal· F. TorresSpain change: F. Torres.46'
- 46'SubstitutionA. Al Khaibari· M. KannoSaudi Arabia change: M. Kanno.
- 46'SubstitutionM. Al Juwayr· A. Al HamdanSaudi Arabia change: A. Al Hamdan.
- Own goalH. TambaktiH. Tambakti turns it into their own net — credited to Saudi Arabia.49'
- 60'Yellow cardM. Kanno· ElbowingM. Kanno is booked — Elbowing.
- 60'SubstitutionA. Al Amri· A. HejjiSaudi Arabia change: A. Hejji.
- 60'SubstitutionF. Al Buraikan· M. Abu Al ShamatSaudi Arabia change: M. Abu Al Shamat.
- SubstitutionD. Olmo· M. MerinoSpain change: M. Merino.61'
- SubstitutionA. Baena· N. WilliamsSpain change: N. Williams.61'
- SubstitutionPedri· F. RuizSpain change: F. Ruiz.70'
- 90'SubstitutionN. Al Dawsari· K. Al GhannamSaudi Arabia change: K. Al Ghannam.
- VAR reviewF. TorresVAR review under way.90'+2
Player involvement
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–017.7%
- 3–015.1%
- 1–013.5%
- 4–09.7%
- 2–16.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Spain win· realised74.7%
- Draw19.2%
- Saudi Arabia win6.1%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.