Group H · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Spain
4:0
Saudi Arabia

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Live descriptive stats

SpainSaudi Arabia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Spain2.562.85+0.29
Saudi Arabia0.360.14−0.22

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
22
3
Shots on target
8
1
Possession (%)
67%
33%
Corners
6
1
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
0
2
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Spain will dominate the ball. Whether Saudi Arabia can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Spain's possession converts to chances. Spain will expect to hold 68% possession. Saudi Arabia need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Spain's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Mikel Oyarzabal's 13.9% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Saudi Arabia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Luis de la Fuente (4 years in charge of Spain) vs Georgios Donis (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Saudi Arabia just 5.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Spain or Saudi Arabia.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 2
Date:
21 Jun
Availability

Spain

Spain come in at close to full strength.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Spain and Saudi Arabia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Spain (above the line)Saudi Arabia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 10' · Lamine YamalGoal, 21' · M. OyarzabalGoal, 24' · M. OyarzabalGoal, 49' · H. Tambakti

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Spain minus Saudi Arabia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

SpainSaudi Arabia
  • GoalLamine Yamal· M. OyarzabalLamine Yamal scores for Spain.10'
  • GoalM. Oyarzabal· A. LaporteM. Oyarzabal scores for Spain.21'
  • GoalM. Oyarzabal· D. OlmoM. Oyarzabal scores for Spain.24'
  • 30'Yellow cardS. Al Dawsari· RoughingS. Al Dawsari is booked — Roughing.
  • SubstitutionLamine Yamal· Y. PinoSpain change: Y. Pino.46'
  • SubstitutionM. Oyarzabal· F. TorresSpain change: F. Torres.46'
  • 46'SubstitutionA. Al Khaibari· M. KannoSaudi Arabia change: M. Kanno.
  • 46'SubstitutionM. Al Juwayr· A. Al HamdanSaudi Arabia change: A. Al Hamdan.
  • Own goalH. TambaktiH. Tambakti turns it into their own net — credited to Saudi Arabia.49'
  • 60'Yellow cardM. Kanno· ElbowingM. Kanno is booked — Elbowing.
  • 60'SubstitutionA. Al Amri· A. HejjiSaudi Arabia change: A. Hejji.
  • 60'SubstitutionF. Al Buraikan· M. Abu Al ShamatSaudi Arabia change: M. Abu Al Shamat.
  • SubstitutionD. Olmo· M. MerinoSpain change: M. Merino.61'
  • SubstitutionA. Baena· N. WilliamsSpain change: N. Williams.61'
  • SubstitutionPedri· F. RuizSpain change: F. Ruiz.70'
  • 90'SubstitutionN. Al Dawsari· K. Al GhannamSaudi Arabia change: K. Al Ghannam.
  • VAR reviewF. TorresVAR review under way.90'+2

Player involvement

Spain

AM. Oyarzabal10' Assist · 21' Goal · 24' Goal · 46' On
Lamine Yamal10' Goal · 46' On
AA. Laporte21' Assist
AD. Olmo24' Assist · 61' On

Saudi Arabia

S. Al Dawsari30' Yellow card
M. Kanno46' Off · 60' Yellow card
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

Spain win
83.7%
Draw
15.3%
Saudi Arabia win
1.0%
Spain
2.56
expected
goals
Saudi Arabia
0.36

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    17.7%
  • 3–0
    15.1%
  • 1–0
    13.5%
  • 4–0
    9.7%
  • 2–1
    6.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

4 – 0
Spain win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Spain win· realised
    74.7%
  • Draw
    19.2%
  • Saudi Arabia win
    6.1%
Brier score
0.105
Log loss
0.292
xG (final / predicted)
2.85 / 2.51 · Spain
0.14 / 0.47 · Saudi Arabia
P(realised outcome)
74.7%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Resumen completo de pronóstico frente a resultado →

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.