Prognose vs. Ergebnis · Group G · Matchday 1
Belgium vs. Egypt
2026-06-15
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Belgium win57.1%
- Draw· realised25.8%
- Egypt win17.1%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
E. Ashour (Egypt)
M. Salah
M. Hany (Belgium)
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (1–1) was the model's #3 most likely outcome at 11.8%.
Team performance
The team showed resilience to come back from a goal down but displayed defensive frailties and struggled to convert numerous chances.
Egypt demonstrated resilience and individual quality to secure a credible away draw against a strong opponent.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Thibaut CourtoisMade several important saves throughout the match, preventing Egypt from extending their lead.
Made several important saves throughout the match, preventing Egypt from extending their lead.
8Romelu LukakuMade an immediate and decisive impact by scoring the equalizing goal shortly after his introduction.
Made an immediate and decisive impact by scoring the equalizing goal shortly after his introduction.
7Youri TielemansWas a persistent offensive presence, registering multiple shots on target and actively trying to break down the defense.
Was a persistent offensive presence, registering multiple shots on target and actively trying to break down the defense.
7Jérémy DokuWas a constant offensive threat with his dribbling and movement, drawing fouls and creating chances, though his shots were consistently blocked.
Was a constant offensive threat with his dribbling and movement, drawing fouls and creating chances, though his shots were consistently blocked.
7Kevin De BruyneShowed flashes of his creative genius, hitting the post and forcing saves from free kicks, but couldn't convert his chances.
Showed flashes of his creative genius, hitting the post and forcing saves from free kicks, but couldn't convert his chances.
7Thomas MeunierWas very active in Belgium's attack from his wide position, registering multiple shots on target.
Was very active in Belgium's attack from his wide position, registering multiple shots on target.
6Nathan Ngoy12'–12'Was involved in an early foul but had no other specific actions mentioned, suggesting an average, quiet performance.
1fouls won▼
Was involved in an early foul but had no other specific actions mentioned, suggesting an average, quiet performance.
Match timeline
6Charles De KetelaereRegistered a header on target but was substituted before Belgium's equalizer, indicating a limited overall impact.
Registered a header on target but was substituted before Belgium's equalizer, indicating a limited overall impact.
6Nicolas RaskinCame on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
6Leandro TrossardCame on as a substitute and had one shot blocked, but no other significant contributions.
Came on as a substitute and had one shot blocked, but no other significant contributions.
5Timothy Castagne13'–13'Picked up an early yellow card and was substituted before the hour mark, limiting his overall impact.
1fouls1 yellow▼
Picked up an early yellow card and was substituted before the hour mark, limiting his overall impact.
Match timeline
4Maxim De CuyperCame on as a substitute and immediately received a yellow card for a foul, negatively impacting his performance.
Came on as a substitute and immediately received a yellow card for a foul, negatively impacting his performance.
9Mostafa ShoubirDelivered an outstanding goalkeeping display, making numerous crucial saves to keep Egypt in the lead and secure the draw.
Delivered an outstanding goalkeeping display, making numerous crucial saves to keep Egypt in the lead and secure the draw.
8Emam Ashour19'–19'Scored Egypt's opening goal with an impressive long-range strike, showcasing his offensive quality.
1goals▼
Scored Egypt's opening goal with an impressive long-range strike, showcasing his offensive quality.
Match timeline
6Mostafa ZicoContributed offensively with a shot on target and drew a yellow card for an opponent before being substituted.
Contributed offensively with a shot on target and drew a yellow card for an opponent before being substituted.
6Omar MarmoushWas active in attack, registering several shots on target, but was consistently denied by the opposing goalkeeper.
Was active in attack, registering several shots on target, but was consistently denied by the opposing goalkeeper.
6Ramy RabiaCame on as a substitute and had one shot wide, but no other significant contributions.
Came on as a substitute and had one shot wide, but no other significant contributions.
6Hamza AbdelkarimCame on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
6Mostafa ZizoCame on as a late substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
Came on as a late substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
5Mohamed Salah13'–13'Despite his reputation, he had a very quiet game with no direct attacking contributions before being substituted.
1fouls won▼
Despite his reputation, he had a very quiet game with no direct attacking contributions before being substituted.
Match timeline
4Ahmed FatouhReceived an early yellow card for a foul and had no other notable positive contributions.
Received an early yellow card for a foul and had no other notable positive contributions.
Match observations
- The match was a competitive encounter, ending in a 1-1 draw with both teams finding the net.
- Egypt took the lead in the first half with a well-placed shot, while Belgium equalized in the second half shortly after a key substitution.
- Both sides had numerous attempts at goal, with goalkeepers on both ends making significant saves to keep the score level.