Previsão vs resultado · Group G · Matchday 1

Belgium vs Egypt

2026-06-15

Post-match calibration

11
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Belgium win
    57.1%
  • Draw· realised
    25.8%
  • Egypt win
    17.1%
Brier score
0.906
Log loss
1.355
xG (final / predicted)
1.32 / 1.55 · Belgium
1.07 / 0.67 · Egypt
P(realised outcome)
25.8%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Against the forecastThe model rated this outcome at 25.8%.
Own goalM. Hany (66')

Key moments

19'
Goal

E. Ashour (Egypt)

M. Salah

66'
Own goalOG

M. Hany (Belgium)

Match statistics

BelgiumEgypt
54%
Possession
46%
15
Shots
14
3
On target
3
1.32
xG
1.07
2
Corners
7
15
Fouls
15
2
Yellows
2

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (11) was the model's #3 most likely outcome at 11.8%.

#11016.3%
#22013.0%
#31111.8%
#40011.4%
#5218.7%

Team performance

BelgiumC+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Above profile7/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
Above profile9/10

The team showed resilience to come back from a goal down but displayed defensive frailties and struggled to convert numerous chances.

EgyptB+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Above profile7/10
Set pieces
In line7/10
Chance creation
Above profile7/10
Shot quality
Above profile8/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
Above profile9/10

Egypt demonstrated resilience and individual quality to secure a credible away draw against a strong opponent.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Belgium
8
Thibaut Courtois

Made several important saves throughout the match, preventing Egypt from extending their lead.

8
Romelu Lukaku

Made an immediate and decisive impact by scoring the equalizing goal shortly after his introduction.

7
Youri Tielemans

Was a persistent offensive presence, registering multiple shots on target and actively trying to break down the defense.

7
Jérémy Doku

Was a constant offensive threat with his dribbling and movement, drawing fouls and creating chances, though his shots were consistently blocked.

7
Kevin De Bruyne

Showed flashes of his creative genius, hitting the post and forcing saves from free kicks, but couldn't convert his chances.

7
Thomas Meunier

Was very active in Belgium's attack from his wide position, registering multiple shots on target.

6
Nathan Ngoy12'–12'

Was involved in an early foul but had no other specific actions mentioned, suggesting an average, quiet performance.

1fouls won

Match timeline

12'Marawan Attia (Egypt #19) receives a yellow card for a foul on Nathan Ngov (Belgium #25).
6
Charles De Ketelaere

Registered a header on target but was substituted before Belgium's equalizer, indicating a limited overall impact.

6
Nicolas Raskin

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.

6
Leandro Trossard

Came on as a substitute and had one shot blocked, but no other significant contributions.

5
Timothy Castagne13'–13'

Picked up an early yellow card and was substituted before the hour mark, limiting his overall impact.

1fouls1 yellow

Match timeline

13'Timothy Castagne (Belgium #21) receives a yellow card for a foul on Mohamed Salah (Egypt #10).
13'Timothy Castagne (Belgium #21) receives a yellow card for a foul on Mohamed Salah (Egypt #10).
4
Maxim De Cuyper

Came on as a substitute and immediately received a yellow card for a foul, negatively impacting his performance.

Egypt
9
Mostafa Shoubir

Delivered an outstanding goalkeeping display, making numerous crucial saves to keep Egypt in the lead and secure the draw.

8
Emam Ashour19'–19'

Scored Egypt's opening goal with an impressive long-range strike, showcasing his offensive quality.

1goals

Match timeline

19'Emam Ashour (Egypt #8) scores with a powerful strike from outside the box.
6
Mostafa Zico

Contributed offensively with a shot on target and drew a yellow card for an opponent before being substituted.

6
Omar Marmoush

Was active in attack, registering several shots on target, but was consistently denied by the opposing goalkeeper.

6
Ramy Rabia

Came on as a substitute and had one shot wide, but no other significant contributions.

6
Hamza Abdelkarim

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.

6
Mostafa Zizo

Came on as a late substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.

5
Mohamed Salah13'–13'

Despite his reputation, he had a very quiet game with no direct attacking contributions before being substituted.

1fouls won

Match timeline

13'Timothy Castagne (Belgium #21) receives a yellow card for a foul on Mohamed Salah (Egypt #10).
4
Ahmed Fatouh

Received an early yellow card for a foul and had no other notable positive contributions.

Match observations

  • The match was a competitive encounter, ending in a 1-1 draw with both teams finding the net.
  • Egypt took the lead in the first half with a well-placed shot, while Belgium equalized in the second half shortly after a key substitution.
  • Both sides had numerous attempts at goal, with goalkeepers on both ends making significant saves to keep the score level.

Como ler isto. O Brier e o log-loss de um jogo isolado são ruidosos — o que importa é como a previsão se calibra ao longo de muitos jogos. Esta retrospectiva por jogo é uma linha do placar de calibração agregado em /docs/calibration/. A probabilidade pré-jogo mostrada aqui é a que foi congelada antes do início; ela nunca foi atualizada durante o jogo.