South Africa
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CAF·المجموعة A·FIFA #61
9 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Mamelodi Sundowns — a single-club spine on the international side.
- منافس
- Mexico (#15)
- رئيسي
- Evidence Makgopa (FW)
Final squad announced · South Africa · 2026-05-27
Source: Reuters ↗نظرة عامة على البطولة
Analysis
South Africa carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (41st of 48). Drawn in Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, they are projected at 22.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
South Africa under Hugo Broos play a balanced game with 52% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.9). They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.189, among the best in the field).
Path to success
In Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa are projected at 22.9% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
South Africa will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for South Africa. Model rates them #44 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #61.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a slower tempo, holding and recycling possession.
Percentiles position South Africa against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group A finish · South Africa
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 3.0%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 10.4%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 24.7%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 61.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · South Africa
, 50,000 sims- 27.7%AdvAdvance from group
- 6.9%R16Round of 16
- 1.4%QFQuarter-final
- 0.2%SFSemi-final
- <0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · South Africa
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsالتشكيلة
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Burnley1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Nkosinathi SibisiCentre-backLikely cover: Mbekezeli Mbokazi · 0.00Chicago Fire0.41gap to repl.
- Aubrey ModibaFull-backLikely cover: Thabang Matuludi · 0.18Polokwane City0.28gap to repl.
- Khuliso MudauFull-backLikely cover: Thabang Matuludi · 0.18Polokwane City0.24gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
جدول المجموعة
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico | Mexico City, Mexico |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | Czech Republic | Atlanta, United States |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | South Korea | Guadalupe, Mexico |
المواجهات المباشرة
قصص
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago9 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Mamelodi Sundowns — a single-club spine on the international side.
Model rates them #44 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #61.
Only 1 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Travels 41,892 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
الحالة والسجل
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Ronwen Williams
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10South Africa trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1524.0 to 1524.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to 0.0% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HPanama | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HPanama | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-01-04 | NCameroon | 1–2 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-29 | NZimbabwe | 3–2 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-26 | NEgypt | 0–1 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-22 | NAngola | 2–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-11-15 | HZambia | 3–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HRwanda | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HZimbabwe | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | HNigeria | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 4 | 1-1-2 | 2010 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Czech Republic | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1997 — Draw (2–2) · Confederations Cup |
| South Korea | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 1 matches | 0-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2010 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2005 | Quarter-finals | 1-3-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Togo · Afcon 2017
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1496) and group draw.
Togo · Afcon 2013
Exited at the quarter-final
Ghana · World Cup 2022
Exited at the group stage