Czech Republic

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

UEFA·المجموعة A·FIFA #—

R16 contender

Counter-attacking side led by Patrik Schick, with a Slavia Prague-heavy spine.

منافس
Mexico (#15)
رئيسي
Patrik Schick (FW)
Share this cardSave image
1

نظرة عامة على البطولة

Analysis

Czech Republic carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (28th of 48). Watch for Hugo Sochůrek — 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, they are projected at 75.8% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Czech Republic under Miroslav Koubek play a counter attacker game, with just 45% possession — among the lowest in the field. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.4).

Path to success

In Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czech Republic are projected at 75.8% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 34.2%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Czech Republic rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Czech Republic broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.2%Win probability28th in field
1726Elo ratingRanked 40th globally
45%Possession sharebottom quartile (37th of 48)
21.5%Tournament goal probability — Patrik SchickTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)
526 daysManager tenureMiroslav Koubek
6%Set piece xG shareLow set piece share — primarily open-play creators

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Counter-attacking · style profile from 8 recent matches

Press
20.4
61
Build-up
5.7
26
Directness
7.8
91
Width (proxy)
390
21
Tempo
8.5
39
Set-piece reliance
6.5
15

What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.

Percentiles position Czech Republic against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group A finish · Czech Republic

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    19.4%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    31.7%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    31.6%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    17.3%

Stage progression · Czech Republic

, 50,000 sims
  1. 74.0%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 33.8%R16Round of 16
  3. 11.5%QFQuarter-final
  4. 3.0%SFSemi-final
  5. 0.8%FFinal
  6. 0.2%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Czech Republic

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Belgium19%
Canada17%
Switzerland16%

R16

Round of 16

Netherlands13%
England12%
Morocco11%

QF

Quarter-final

France16%
Spain14%
Germany11%

SF

Semi-final

Spain15%
France9%
Argentina7%

F

Final

Argentina16%
Brazil11%
England11%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →
2

التشكيلة

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Matěj KovářRating-drivenPSV
19c—0.85
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Vladimír CoufalCaps-driven→TSG Hoffenheim
61c44tackles0.89
DF
Tomáš HolešCaps-driven↘Slavia Prague
39c—0.52
DF
Ladislav Krejčí↗Wolverhampton Wanderers
25c—0.67
DF
David ZimaSlavia Prague
24c19tackles0.51
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Vladimír DaridaCaps-drivenHradec Králové
78c10assists0.73
MF
Tomáš SoučekCaps-driven↘West Ham United
89c5assists0.42
MF
Lukáš ProvodSlavia Prague
37c2assists0.66
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Patrik SchickGoals-driven→Bayer Leverkusen
52c25goals0.90
FW
Adam HložekCaps-drivenTSG Hoffenheim
41c4goals0.50
FW
Jan KuchtaSparta Prague
30c3goals0.52
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Lukáš HorníčekRating-drivenBraga★ Likely first sub
0c—0.64
GK
Jindřich StaněkRecoveringRating-drivenSlavia Prague★ Likely first sub
14c—0.65
Defenders (5)
PlayerStat
DF
David JurásekRating-drivenSlavia Prague★ Likely first sub
16c—0.72
DF
David DouděraRating-drivenSlavia Prague★ Likely first sub
15c—0.56
DF
Jaroslav ZelenýCaps-drivenSparta Prague
21c—0.36
DF
Robin HranáčRating-drivenTSG Hoffenheim★ Likely first subimpact 9/100
12c—0.55
DF
Štěpán ChaloupekRecoveringRating-drivenSlavia Prague
3c—0.49
Midfielders (5)
PlayerStat
MF
Pavel ŠulcRating-drivenLyon★ Likely first sub
20c2assists0.71
MF
Michal SadílekRecoveringSlavia Prague★ Likely first sub
33c3assists0.66
MF
Lukáš ČervRating-drivenViktoria Plzeň★ Likely first sub
15c2assists0.56
MF
Tomáš LadraCaps-drivenViktoria Plzeň
1c0assists0.00
MF
Pavel BuchaCincinnati
0c0assists0.00
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Mojmír ChytilSlavia Prague★ Likely first sub
21c6goals0.60
FW
Tomáš ChorýSlavia Prague★ Likely first sub
21c6goals0.48
FW
Christophe KabongoMladá Boleslav★ Likely first sub
0c0goals0.00
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes
2.65%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.280
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
80%
4 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • West Ham2
  • Torino1
  • Bayer Leverkusen1

Most-connected club pair

Vladimír Coufal + Tomáš Souček — West Ham, 2023-24 · 3,937 shared minutes

Show next 1
  • Patrik Schick + Adam Hložek — Bayer Leverkusen, 2023-24 · 429 min

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Lukáš ProvodWingerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level W ~0.280.38gap to repl.
  2. Tomáš SoučekDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.240.33gap to repl.
  3. Patrik SchickStrikerLikely cover: Mojmír Chytil · 0.60Slavia Prague0.30gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

جدول المجموعة

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 11, 2026South KoreaZapopan, Mexico
2Jun 18, 2026South AfricaAtlanta, United States
3Jun 24, 2026MexicoMexico City, Mexico

المواجهات المباشرة

هدّافو Czech Republic المتوقعون →

4

قصص

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago
Club core

8 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Slavia Prague — a single-club spine on the international side.

Teen starterHugo Sochůrek

18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Scoring form

Averaged 2.40 xG per match across 8 recent internationals — #5 of 35 in the field for attacking output.

TouchlineMiroslav Koubek

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.

5

الحالة والسجل

Statistical profile

Counter Attacker

Attack

Attack rating0.8125th/48
Shots per match11.721st/48
Chance quality0.09733rd/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6016th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5322nd/48

GK: Matěj Kovář

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share6.5%33rd/48
Penalty conversion73.3%12th/48
Penalty save rate23.3%18th/48

Style

Possession45.4%37th/48
Press intensity20.416th/48
Directness7.84th/48
Crossing volume390.032nd/48
Long ball volume41.17th/48
Build-up length5.730th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,21936th/48
Club familiarity0.0268th/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored9 goals · 100 shots
Conceded8 goals · 95 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs South Korea
Win33.4%
Draw26.5%
Loss40.1%
Expected goals for1.21
Expected goals against1.09
Likeliest score1-1 (13.8%)
Both teams score47.3%
Clean sheet33.6%
Full fixture analysis →
vs South Africa
Win51.7%
Draw27.2%
Loss21.2%
Expected goals for1.37
Expected goals against0.82
Likeliest score0-1 (14.8%)
Both teams score42.2%
Clean sheet44.2%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Mexico
Win25.4%
Draw27.3%
Loss47.3%
Expected goals for1.02
Expected goals against1.08
Likeliest score1-1 (14.1%)
Both teams score42.9%
Clean sheet34.1%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10
Czech Republic — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 10 snapshotsCzech Republic trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1726.0 to 1726.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).Elo rating17161723172917362026-05-22 · Elo 1726.02026-06-06 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1726.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%2026-05-22 · 0.1% (CI <0.1%–0.2%)2026-06-06 · 0.1% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (+0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 0.1% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · <0.1% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (−0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.2% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (+0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.2% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.2% (CI <0.1%–0.3%) (0pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10)

Czech Republic trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1726.0 to 1726.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 4D · 2L
Goals18–12
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31HDenmark2–2DFIFA World Cup qualification
2026-03-26HRepublic of Ireland2–2DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-17HGibraltar6–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-13HSan Marino1–0WFriendly
2025-10-12AFaroe Islands1–2LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-09HCroatia0–0DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-08HSaudi Arabia1–1DFriendly
2025-09-05AMontenegro2–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-09ACroatia1–5LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-06HMontenegro2–0WFIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
South Korea31-1-12016 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly
Mexico11-0-02000 — Win (2–1) · Lunar New Year Cup
South Africa10-1-01997 — Draw (2–2) · Confederations Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
UEFA Euro2024Group stage0-1-2
  • New head coach since then — now Miroslav Koubek (appointed 2025)
  • 26/35 of current pool (74%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup2006Group stage1-0-2
  • New head coach since then — now Miroslav Koubek (appointed 2025)
  • 0/35 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • Belgium · World Cup 1994

    Exited at the round of 16

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1774) and group draw.

  • Bulgaria · World Cup 1998

    Exited at the group stage

  • Switzerland · World Cup 2006

    Exited at the round of 16