التوقعات مقابل النتيجة · Group A · Matchday 1

Mexico ضد South Africa

2026-06-11

Post-match calibration

2 – 0
Mexico win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Mexico win· realised
    59.5%
  • Draw
    27.2%
  • South Africa win
    13.4%
Brier score
0.256
Log loss
0.520
xG (final / predicted)
1.41 / 1.26 · Mexico
0.07 / 0.71 · South Africa
P(realised outcome)
59.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Red cardsY. Sithole (49'), T. Zwane (84'), C. Montes (90')

Key moments

9'⚽
Goal

J. Quinones (Mexico)

E. Lira

49'🟥
Red

Y. Sithole (South Africa)

Tripping

67'⚽
Goal

R. Jimenez (Mexico)

R. Alvarado

84'🟥
Red

T. Zwane (South Africa)

Elbowing

90'+2🟥
Red

C. Montes (Mexico)

Tripping

Match statistics

MexicoSOU
61%
Possession
39%
16
Shots
3
4
On target
2
1.41
xG
0.07
3
Corners
1
12
Fouls
11
1
Yellows
2
1
Reds
2

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (2–0) was the model's #4 most likely outcome at 11.0%.

#11–016.9%
#20–014.5%
#31–113.1%
#42–011.0%
#50–19.4%

Team performance

MexicoA-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Above profile7/10
Set pieces
Below profile4/10
Chance creation
Above profile9/10
Shot quality
Above profile9/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
In line8/10

The team secured a comfortable 2-0 victory, demonstrating effective finishing and strong defensive organisation.

South AfricaF
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile2/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Below profile1/10
Shot quality
Below profile1/10
Cohesion
Below profile2/10
Individual quality
Below profile3/10

The team displayed poor attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a significant dip in current form.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Mexico
9
Julián Quiñones6'–8'

Scored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.

2goals
▼

Match timeline

6'Julián Quiñones scores for Mexico with a close-range finish after a swift attacking move.
8'Quinones scored for Mexico, converting a rebound from close range.
9
Raúl Jiménez36'–67'

Scored two goals for Mexico, including a header and a composed finish, significantly extending his team's lead.

2goals
▼

Match timeline

36'Raúl Jiménez's free kick for Mexico is blocked by the defensive wall.
45'Raúl Jiménez extends Mexico's lead with a header from a cross into the penalty area.
67'Jimenez extended Mexico's lead with a composed finish from inside the penalty area.
South Africa
7
Modiba40'–40'

Registered South Africa's only notable shot on target with a long-range effort that required a save from the Mexico goalkeeper.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

40'Modiba's long-range effort for South Africa is saved by the Mexico goalkeeper.

Match observations

  • The match between Mexico and South Africa was preceded by an elaborate opening ceremony, featuring national flags and mascots on the pitch.
  • The stadium was filled with enthusiastic supporters, creating a vibrant atmosphere with confetti falling throughout the event.
  • Mexico secured a 2-0 victory over South Africa, with goals registered in the 8th and 67th minutes.
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