Germany

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

UEFA·المجموعة E·FIFA #9

Top-8 contender

Possession-dominant side missing Florian Wirtz through injury, with a Bayern Munich-heavy spine.

التشكيل الأخير: 4-2-3-1 (3 من 3)

منافس
Ecuador (#23)
رئيسي
Niclas Füllkrug (FW)
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Final squad announced · Germany · 2026-05-30

Source: Yahoo Sports ↗

WC2026 results

Record2W · 1D · 1L
Goals11:5 (+6)
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultVenue
Jun 14Curaçao7–1WHouston
Jun 20Ivory Coast2–1WToronto
Jun 25Ecuador1–2LEast Rutherford
Jun 29Paraguay1–1DBoston
1

نظرة عامة على البطولة

Analysis

Germany are rated at 5.2% to win the tournament, placing them 7th in the field. A key storyline is the fitness of Florian Wirtz — stomach problems, no expected return. Drawn in Group E alongside Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao, they are projected at 98.5% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Germany under Julian Nagelsmann play a possession dominant game, holding 64% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.8) and build patiently through midfield with 8.6 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (17.4 per 90).

Path to success

Their route begins in Group E with Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao, where the model projects a 55.0% chance of finishing top and 98.5% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (66.7%), quarter-finals (37.3%), semi-finals (22.3%), the final (11.1%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.

What they must execute

To succeed, Germany must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing the fitness of Florian Wirtz could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Germany broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

5.2%Win probability7th in field
1923Elo ratingRanked 11th globally
4-2-3-1Predicted formationMost-used shape in recent tournaments
17.4Shots per 90highest in the field
29.6%Tournament goal probability — Niclas FüllkrugTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)
3.4 yearsManager tenureJulian Nagelsmann

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Possession-dominant · style profile from 15 recent matches

Press
17.8
76
Build-up
8.6
96
Directness
4.4
6
Width (proxy)
618.1
96
Tempo
10.1
89
Set-piece reliance
14.8
62

What to watch: patient, multi-pass build-up.

Percentiles position Germany against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group E finish · Germany

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    55.5%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    29.8%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    13.6%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    1.1%

Stage progression · Germany

, 100,000 sims
  1. 97.5%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 69.9%R16Round of 16
  3. 39.1%QFQuarter-final
  4. 22.7%SFSemi-final
  5. 10.7%FFinal
  6. 4.8%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Germany

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Norway10%
Senegal10%
Scotland10%

R16

Round of 16

France21%
Brazil12%
Japan7%

QF

Quarter-final

Morocco12%
Brazil11%
Netherlands10%

SF

Semi-final

Spain15%
Argentina15%
Portugal10%

F

Final

Argentina14%
Brazil10%
Spain9%
2

التشكيلة

Confirmed squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Manuel Neuer#1Jersey-boosted↘Bayern Munich
124c72save%0.22
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Antonio Rüdiger#2Jersey-boosted↘Real Madrid
82c53tackles0.34
DF
Jonathan Tah#4Jersey-boosted↘Bayern Munich
45c12tackles0.57
DF
David Raum#22↗RB Leipzig
36c64tackles0.88
DF
Nico Schlotterbeck#15Rating-driven→Borussia Dortmund
25c31tackles0.79
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Joshua Kimmich#6→Bayern Munich
108c27assists0.84
MF
Leon Goretzka#8↘Bayern Munich
69c12assists0.81
MF
Jamal Musiala#10→Bayern Munich
40c—0.86
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Kai Havertz#7↗Arsenal
57c21goals0.86
FW
Leroy Sané#19↗Galatasaray
74c16goals0.92
FW
Deniz Undav#26Rating-driven↗VfB Stuttgart
7c4goals0.93
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Oliver Baumann#12Jersey-boosted↗TSG Hoffenheim★ Likely first sub
11c74save%0.75
GK
Alexander Nübel#21Rating-driven↗VfB Stuttgart★ Likely first subimpact 1/100
3c74save%0.80
Defenders (3)
PlayerStat
DF
Waldemar Anton#3Jersey-boosted↗Borussia Dortmund★ Likely first subimpact 7/100
12c21tackles0.89
DF
Malick Thiaw#24Rating-driven↗Newcastle United★ Likely first subimpact 21/100
5c47tackles0.91
DF
Nathaniel Brown#18Rating-driven↗Eintracht Frankfurt★ Likely first subimpact 18/100
3c—0.80
Midfielders (8)
PlayerStat
MF
Florian Wirtz#17↘Liverpool★ Likely first subimpact 48/100
39c11assists0.85
MF
Nadiem Amiri#20Rating-driven↗Mainz 05★ Likely first subimpact 48/100
9c0assists0.88
MF
Pascal Groß#13Jersey-boosted↘Brighton & Hove Albionimpact 31/100
18c1assists0.51
MF
Angelo Stiller#16Jersey-boosted→VfB Stuttgart★ Likely first subimpact 29/100
7c0assists0.77
MF
Aleksandar Pavlović#5Jersey-boostedBayern Munichimpact 22/100
9c0assists0.59
MF
Jamie Leweling#9Jersey-boosted↗VfB Stuttgartimpact 38/100
4c0assists0.73
MF
Felix Nmecha#23Rating-driven→Borussia Dortmundimpact 18/100
6c0assists0.52
MF
Lennart Karl#25Jersey-boostedBayern Munich
2c0assists0.00
Forwards (2)
PlayerStat
FW
Nick Woltemade#11Jersey-boosted↘Newcastle United★ Likely first subimpact 35/100
10c4goals0.56
FW
Maximilian Beier#14Jersey-boosted↘Borussia Dortmund★ Likely first subimpact 58/100
7c0goals0.68
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes
3.06%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.124
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
45%
5 of 11 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Bayern Munich2
  • VfB Stuttgart2
  • Barcelona1

Most-connected club pair

Leroy Sané + Leon Goretzka — Bayern Munich, 2023-24 · 3,442 shared minutes

Show next 1
  • Nick Woltemade + Deniz Undav — VfB Stuttgart, 2024-25 · 1,604 min

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Deniz UndavStrikerLikely cover: Maximilian Beier · 0.68Borussia Dortmund0.25gap to repl.
  2. Leroy SanéWingerLikely cover: Jamie Leweling · 0.73VfB Stuttgart0.18gap to repl.
  3. Kai HavertzStrikerLikely cover: Maximilian Beier · 0.68Borussia Dortmund0.17gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

جدول المجموعة

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 14, 2026CuraçaoHouston, United States
2Jun 20, 2026Ivory CoastToronto, Canada
3Jun 25, 2026EcuadorEast Rutherford, United States

المواجهات المباشرة

هدّافو Germany المتوقعون →

4

قصص

Storylines

Updated 49 days ago
Out injuredFlorian Wirtz

Stomach problems, no expected return. Composite 0.98 — would have been a likely starter.

Veteran #1wp-manuel-neuer-1986-03-27

40 at kickoff with 124 caps — last World Cup for the #1.

Club core

7 of 24 predicted-squad players play their club football for Bayern Munich — a single-club spine on the international side.

Club xG

Squad averages 2.13 xG per match across club football last season — #1 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (22 of 24 players matched to a known club).

5

الحالة والسجل

Video analysis: Germany

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 4 matches. 20 players observed, 43 events tracked.

9
Deniz UndavStandout performer

Came off the bench to score two decisive goals, including the equalizer and winner, completely turning the match around for Germany.

2 goals
9
Goals
16
Shots
7
Saves
3
Fouls won
0
Cards
1
Headers
Rating spread(27 ratings)
8+ (11)7 (5)6 (8)5- (3)

Match by match

gs-009
6 goals14 shots
gs-033
2 goals
gs-057
1 goal2 shots
r32-002

Player ratings (20)

9
Deniz Undav1 app · 3 events
2 goals1 header
9
▼

Came off the bench to score two decisive goals, including the equalizer and winner, completely turning the match around for Germany.

gs-0339Came off the bench to score two decisive goals, including the equalizer and winner, completely turning the match around for Germany.
8
Felix Nmecha1 app · 5 events
1 goal2 shots1 fouls won
8
▼

Scored an early goal and earned a penalty, significantly contributing to Germany's attack.

gs-0098Scored an early goal and earned a penalty, significantly contributing to Germany's attack.
8
Jamal Musiala1 app · 3 events
1 goal1 shot (1 on target)1 fouls won
8
▼

Scored a sensational goal and consistently troubled the opposition defense with his dribbling and vision.

gs-0098Scored a sensational goal and consistently troubled the opposition defense with his dribbling and vision.
8
Nico Schlotterbeck1 app · 3 events
1 goal2 shots (2 on target)
8
▼

Scored a vital header to regain Germany's lead, showcasing his aerial ability.

gs-0098Scored a vital header to regain Germany's lead, showcasing his aerial ability.
8
Kai Havertz3 apps · 2 events
1 goal
978
▼

Scored two goals, including a penalty, and was a constant threat in attack throughout the match.

gs-0099Scored two goals, including a penalty, and was a constant threat in attack throughout the match.
gs-0337Despite two disallowed goals, he was a constant threat in the German attack, demonstrating good movement and finishing instincts.
r32-0028Scored Germany's equalizer with a clever header and was a constant attacking threat, creating multiple scoring opportunities.
8
Nathaniel Brown1 app · 2 events
1 goal1 shot (1 on target)
8
▼

Scored a goal and consistently provided an attacking threat from the left flank.

gs-0098Scored a goal and consistently provided an attacking threat from the left flank.
8
Denis Undav1 app · 2 events
1 goal
8
▼

Came on as a substitute and quickly scored a goal, maintaining his impressive scoring run.

gs-0098Came on as a substitute and quickly scored a goal, maintaining his impressive scoring run.
8
Wirtz1 app · 1 events
1 goal
8
▼

Scored Germany's opening goal with a clinical finish, showcasing excellent positioning and attacking prowess.

gs-0578Scored Germany's opening goal with a clinical finish, showcasing excellent positioning and attacking prowess.
8
Ecuador GK1 app · 3 events
3 saves
8
▼

Made multiple crucial saves, particularly from headers and a late shot, to secure Ecuador's victory and maintain their lead.

gs-0578Made multiple crucial saves, particularly from headers and a late shot, to secure Ecuador's victory and maintain their lead.
8
Rodriguez1 app
8
▼

Scored the decisive winning goal from a corner kick, proving to be a match-winner for Ecuador.

gs-0578Scored the decisive winning goal from a corner kick, proving to be a match-winner for Ecuador.
7
Neuer1 app · 3 events
3 saves
7
▼

Made several crucial saves to keep Germany in the match, despite ultimately conceding two goals.

gs-0577Made several crucial saves to keep Germany in the match, despite ultimately conceding two goals.
6.5
Leroy Sané2 apps · 5 events
4 shots
67
▼

Was active in attack with several shots but did not directly contribute to a goal.

gs-0096Was active in attack with several shots but did not directly contribute to a goal.
gs-0337Displayed excellent close control and dribbling, creating opportunities and contributing to Germany's attacking phases.
6.5
Florian Wirtz2 apps · 3 events
2 shots1 fouls won
67
▼

Showed attacking intent and drew a foul but lacked a direct goal contribution.

gs-0096Showed attacking intent and drew a foul but lacked a direct goal contribution.
gs-0337A creative force for Germany, he used his technical ability, dribbling, and vision to unlock the opposition defense.
6.5
Joshua Kimmich2 apps · 1 events
67
▼

Played for a significant portion of the match without any notable contributions.

gs-0096Played for a significant portion of the match without any notable contributions.
r32-0027A central figure in Germany's midfield, dictating tempo and contributing significantly to both offensive build-up and defensive control.
6
Leon Goretzka1 app · 2 events
1 shot (1 on target)
6
▼

Had a couple of shots but did not make a decisive impact on the game.

gs-0096Had a couple of shots but did not make a decisive impact on the game.
6
Havertz1 app · 2 events
2 shots (2 on target)
6
▼

Despite getting into good scoring positions and having multiple header attempts, he was unable to convert his chances.

gs-0576Despite getting into good scoring positions and having multiple header attempts, he was unable to convert his chances.
6
Aleksandar Pavlović1 app · 1 events
1 shot
6
▼

Had one shot blocked but otherwise had no significant impact.

gs-0096Had one shot blocked but otherwise had no significant impact.
6
Waldemar Anton1 app
6
▼

Came on as a late substitute and had no significant actions.

gs-0096Came on as a late substitute and had no significant actions.
5
Manuel Neuer2 apps · 1 events
1 save
64
▼

Made one save but was otherwise not heavily tested in a dominant German performance.

gs-0096Made one save but was otherwise not heavily tested in a dominant German performance.
r32-0024Made a significant error leading to an opposition chance and failed to make a decisive save in the penalty shootout.
4
Jonathan Tah2 apps · 1 events
53
▼

Conceded a foul leading to a free kick for the opposition before being substituted.

gs-0095Conceded a foul leading to a free kick for the opposition before being substituted.
r32-0023Had a potential winning goal disallowed and then missed a decisive penalty in the shootout, directly contributing to Germany's elimination.

Match observations

  • gs-009Germany secured a dominant victory over Curaçao in a high-scoring encounter. The match saw Germany's attacking quality shine through, with multiple players contributing to the goal tally.
  • gs-009Curaçao, despite being significant underdogs, managed to score a historic goal, briefly levelling the score and igniting celebrations among their fans. Their goalkeeper, Eloy Room, was particularly busy, making several important stops.
  • gs-009Germany maintained control for large portions of the match, especially in the second half, creating numerous opportunities and demonstrating their clinical finishing. The atmosphere in the stadium was lively, with both sets of supporters passionately backing their teams.
  • gs-033The match began with Germany showing early attacking intent, but Ivory Coast's goalkeeper Fofana was in fine form.
  • gs-033Ivory Coast took a surprising lead, but Germany responded with sustained pressure and several attacking movements.
  • gs-033The game featured two disallowed goals for Germany, both due to fouls, highlighting the physical nature of the contest.
  • gs-057The match was a high-energy contest with both teams demonstrating strong attacking intent.
  • gs-057Germany took an early lead, but Ecuador responded well, showcasing individual skill and capitalizing on set-pieces.
  • gs-057Both goalkeepers were called into action multiple times, making significant interventions.
  • r32-002This knockout stage encounter saw Paraguay secure a historic victory over Germany.
  • r32-002The match was a tightly contested affair, with both teams finding the net once in regular time.
  • r32-002Germany pressed hard in extra time, but Paraguay's goalkeeper was resolute, forcing the game into a penalty shootout.

Statistical profile

Possession Dominant

Attack

Attack rating1.295th/48
Shots per match17.41st/48
Chance quality0.10429th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.8935th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.7813th/48

GK: Alexander Nübel

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share14.8%15th/48
Penalty conversion78.2%1st/48
Penalty save rate30.9%1st/48

Style

Possession63.6%3rd/48
Press intensity17.810th/48
Directness4.438th/48
Crossing volume618.12nd/48
Long ball volume28.337th/48
Build-up length8.62nd/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter2,0677th/48
Club familiarity0.0316th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored23 goals · 286 shots
Conceded17 goals · 127 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 15 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Curaçao2026-06-14
Win87.8%
Draw11.9%
Loss0.4%
Expected goals for3.85
Expected goals against0.47
Likeliest score3-0 (12.7%)
Both teams score36.7%
Clean sheet62.6%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Ivory Coast2026-06-20
Win64.1%
Draw23.8%
Loss12.1%
Expected goals for1.69
Expected goals against0.84
Likeliest score1-0 (12.7%)
Both teams score47.2%
Clean sheet43.0%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Ecuador2026-06-25
Win50.6%
Draw26.6%
Loss22.8%
Expected goals for1.28
Expected goals against0.91
Likeliest score1-1 (13.8%)
Both teams score44.0%
Clean sheet40.1%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24
Germany — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 12 snapshotsGermany trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1923.0 to 1923.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 4.3% to 5.0% (+0.8pp).Elo rating19131920192619332026-05-22 · Elo 1923.02026-06-06 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-23 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-24 · Elo 1923.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability1.1%3.2%5.3%7.4%2026-05-22 · 4.3% (CI 3.0%–6.9%)2026-06-06 · 5.1% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (+0.9pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 5.1% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 5.3% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (+0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 5.3% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (−0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 5.3% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 1.6% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (−3.7pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 5.2% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (+3.6pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 5.1% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (−0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 5.1% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-23 · 6.2% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (+1.1pp vs prior)2026-06-24 · 5.0% (CI 3.0%–6.5%) (−1.1pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24)

Germany trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1923.0 to 1923.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 4.3% to 5.0% (+0.8pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record7W · 0D · 3L
Goals23–11
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-30HGhana2–1WFriendly
2026-03-27ASwitzerland4–3WFriendly
2025-11-17HSlovakia6–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-14ALuxembourg2–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-13ANorthern Ireland1–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-10HLuxembourg4–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-07HNorthern Ireland3–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04ASlovakia0–2LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-08HFrance0–2LUEFA Nations League
2025-06-04HPortugal1–2LUEFA Nations League

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
Ecuador22-0-02013 — Win (4–2) · Friendly
Ivory Coast21-1-02026 — Win (2–1) · FIFA World Cup
Curaçao11-0-02026 — Win (7–1) · FIFA World Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
UEFA Euro2024Quarter-finals3-1-1
  • Same head coach (Julian Nagelsmann) since 2023
  • 26/38 of current pool (68%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup2022Group stage1-1-1
  • New head coach since then — now Julian Nagelsmann (appointed 2023)
  • 13/38 of current pool (34%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • England · Euro 2024

    Finished runner-up

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2044) and group draw.

  • Spain · Euro 2024

    Won the tournament

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