Japan
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0AFC·المجموعة F·FIFA #18
Compact low-block side.
- منافس
- Netherlands (#7)
- رئيسي
- Daichi Kamada (MF)
نظرة عامة على البطولة
Analysis
Japan sit in the second tier of contenders with a 0.9% tournament probability (18th in the field). Yūto Nagatomo — 39 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group F alongside Netherlands, Tunisia, Sweden, they are projected at 84.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Japan under Hajime Moriyasu play a low block game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used other. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 26.7).
Path to success
Japan face Netherlands, Tunisia, Sweden in Group F, with a 84.9% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 17.9%, though reaching the semi-finals (7.7%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Japan will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design. Managing minutes for Yūto Nagatomo across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged 2,620 club minutes in 2024-25 — #2 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Low block · style profile from 8 recent matches
What to watch: a high-tempo game, circulating the ball quickly.
Percentiles position Japan against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group F finish · Japan
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 30.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 34.9%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 22.5%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 11.8%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Japan
, 50,000 sims- 82.7%AdvAdvance from group
- 35.1%R16Round of 16
- 18.5%QFQuarter-final
- 7.9%SFSemi-final
- 2.9%FFinal
- 1.0%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Japan
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsالتشكيلة
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.200
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 60%
- 3 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Parma Calcio 19131
- Borussia M.Gladbach1
- Freiburg1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Ayase UedaStrikerLikely cover: Yuito Suzuki · 0.31SC Freiburg0.34gap to repl.
- Kōki OgawaStrikerLikely cover: Yuito Suzuki · 0.31SC Freiburg0.14gap to repl.
- Takefusa KuboWingerLikely cover: Keito Nakamura · 0.77Reims0.09gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
جدول المجموعة
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Netherlands | Arlington, United States |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Tunisia | Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Sweden | Arlington, United States |
المواجهات المباشرة
قصص
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago39 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final World Cup.
XI averaged 2,620 club minutes in 2024-25 — #2 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
3 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Dallas, Monterrey, Dallas (peak 29.4°C average).
8-year tenure — one of the longest in international football.
الحالة والسجل
Statistical profile
Low BlockAttack
Defence
GK: Zion Suzuki
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: moderate
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Japan trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1904.0 to 1904.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.8% to 1.0% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | AEngland | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | AScotland | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HBolivia | 3–0 | W | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-11-14 | HGhana | 2–0 | W | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-14 | HBrazil | 3–2 | W | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-10 | HParaguay | 2–2 | D | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-09-09 | AUnited States | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-09-06 | NMexico | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-06-10 | HIndonesia | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AAustralia | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 5 | 4-0-1 | 2022 — Loss (0–3) · Kirin Cup |
| Sweden | 4 | 0-2-2 | 2002 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
| Netherlands | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2013 — Draw (2–2) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-0-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-1-1 |
|
| Copa América | 2019 | Group stage | 0-2-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
South Korea · World Cup 2022
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1884) and group draw.