Australia
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0AFC·المجموعة D·FIFA #26
Transition-heavy side with Mathew Ryan in goal.
التشكيل الأخير: 4-4-2 (2 من 4)
- منافس
- United States (#14)
- رئيسي
- Brandon Borrello (FW)
نظرة عامة على البطولة
Analysis
Australia carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (26th of 48). Watch for Nestory Irankunda — 20 at kickoff — 13 caps. Drawn in Group D alongside United States, Paraguay, Turkey, they are projected at 61.5% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Australia under Tony Popovic play a transition heavy game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-4-2, though they have also used 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 37.0). They are selective in their shooting (8.0 per 90).
Path to success
In Group D alongside United States, Paraguay, Turkey, Australia are projected at 61.5% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 27.7%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Australia rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged only 249 club minutes in 2024-25 — #43 of 43 in the field. Light pre-tournament prep on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.
Percentiles position Australia against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group D finish · Australia
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 18.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 22.8%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 26.7%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 31.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Australia
, 50,000 sims- 61.6%AdvAdvance from group
- 28.0%R16Round of 16
- 9.5%QFQuarter-final
- 2.6%SFSemi-final
- 0.8%FFinal
- 0.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Australia
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsالتشكيلة
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.21%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- St. Pauli2
Most-connected club pair
Jackson Irvine + Connor Metcalfe — St. Pauli, 2024-25 · 340 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Mathew RyanGoalkeeperLikely cover: Paul Izzo · 0.33Randers0.56gap to repl.
- Nestory IrankundaWingerLikely cover: Nishan Velupillay · 0.09Melbourne Victory0.36gap to repl.
- Jordan BosFull-backLikely cover: Jason Geria · 0.23Albirex Niigata0.26gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
جدول المجموعة
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2026 | Turkey | Vancouver, Canada |
| 2 | Jun 19, 2026 | United States | Seattle, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Paraguay | Santa Clara, United States |
المواجهات المباشرة
قصص
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago20 at kickoff — 13 caps.
Gained 58 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1905.
XI averaged only 249 club minutes in 2024-25 — #43 of 43 in the field. Light pre-tournament prep on the starting eleven.
Travels 38,983 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
الحالة والسجل
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Mathew Ryan
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Australia trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1783.0 to 1783.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.2% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HCuraçao | 5–1 | W | FIFA Series |
| 2026-03-27 | HCameroon | 1–0 | W | FIFA Series |
| 2025-11-18 | NColombia | 0–3 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-14 | NVenezuela | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | AUnited States | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | ACanada | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | ANew Zealand | 3–1 | W | Soccer Ashes |
| 2025-09-05 | HNew Zealand | 1–0 | W | Soccer Ashes |
| 2025-06-10 | ASaudi Arabia | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | HJapan | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 5 | 2-3-0 | 2010 — Win (1–0) · Friendly |
| United States | 4 | 1-1-2 | 2025 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly |
| Turkey | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2004 — Loss (0–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-0-2 |
|
| Oceania Nations Cup | 2004 | Champion | 6-1-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
South Korea · World Cup 2010
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1839) and group draw.
South Korea · World Cup 2006
Exited at the group stage
Japan · World Cup 2014
Exited at the group stage