Ghana
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CAF·المجموعة L·FIFA #72
Counter-attacking side.
التشكيل الأخير: 4-2-3-1 (2 من 3)
- منافس
- England (#4)
- رئيسي
- Jordan Ayew (FW)
Final squad announced · Ghana · 2026-05-26
Source: Al Jazeera ↗نظرة عامة على البطولة
Analysis
Ghana carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (48th of 48). The squad bridges generations: Jordan Ayew (34 at kickoff with 119 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Caleb Yirenkyi, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group L alongside England, Croatia, Panama, they are projected at 22.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Ghana under Carlos Queiroz play a counter attacker game, with just 43% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 5-3-2. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.2) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.3 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (7.5 per 90) and favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.140, among the best in the field).
Path to success
In Group L alongside England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana are projected at 22.7% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Ghana rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Jordan Ayew across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Ghana. Model rates them #41 by tournament-winner probability — 31 places higher than FIFA #72.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Counter-attacking · style profile from 6 recent matches
What to watch: a narrow, central attacking shape (crossing proxy).
Percentiles position Ghana against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group L finish · Ghana
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 1.4%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 7.9%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 33.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 57.3%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Ghana
, 50,000 sims- 25.7%AdvAdvance from group
- 3.9%R16Round of 16
- 0.8%QFQuarter-final
- 0.1%SFSemi-final
- <0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Ghana
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsالتشكيلة
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.200
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 60%
- 3 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Auxerre1
- Rennes1
- Arsenal1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Lawrence Ati-ZigiGoalkeeperLikely cover: Joseph Anang · 0.21St Patrick's Athletic0.41gap to repl.
- Thomas ParteyDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Elisha Owusu · 0.17Auxerre0.30gap to repl.
- Gideon MensahFull-backLikely cover: Marvin Senaya · 0.26Auxerre0.29gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
جدول المجموعة
Group-stage schedule
المواجهات المباشرة
قصص
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoModel rates them #41 by tournament-winner probability — 31 places higher than FIFA #72.
Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Oman.
20 at kickoff — 10 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
34 at kickoff with 119 caps — probably his final World Cup.
الحالة والسجل
Statistical profile
Counter AttackerAttack
Defence
GK: Lawrence Ati-Zigi
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 6 matches (AFCON2023,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Ghana trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1505.0 to 1503.0 (−2.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to 0.0% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | AGermany | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | AAustria | 1–5 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | ASouth Korea | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-14 | AJapan | 0–2 | L | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-12 | HComoros | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-08 | NCentral African Republic | 5–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | HMali | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | AChad | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-05-31 | NTrinidad and Tobago | 4–0 | W | Unity Cup |
| 2025-05-28 | NNigeria | 1–2 | L | Unity Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2011 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
| Croatia | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| Panama | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2024 | Group stage | 0-2-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.