Norway

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

UEFA·المجموعة I·FIFA #29

R16 contender

Elite-attacking side led by Alexander Sørloth.

منافس: France (#3)
رئيسي: Erling Haaland (FW)

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Final squad announced · Norway · 2026-05-22

Source: Town & Country Magazine ↗

نظرة عامة على البطولة

Analysis

Norway sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.0% tournament probability (16th in the field). Drawn in Group I alongside France, Senegal, Iraq, they are projected at 83.7% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Limited recent tournament data is available for Norway's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.

Path to success

Norway face France, Senegal, Iraq in Group I, with a 83.7% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 19.2%, though reaching the semi-finals (8.4%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.

What they must execute

Norway will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Norway broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

1.0%Win probability16th in field

1912Elo ratingRanked 12th globally

0.191xG per shot2nd in the field

43.7%Tournament goal probability — Erling HaalandTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

6.4 yearsManager tenureStåle Solbakken

83.7%Group stage advance probabilityGroup I

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Norway. Insufficient match coverage.

Percentiles position Norway against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group I finish · Norway

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
22.1%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
35.7%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
31.8%
4th
Eliminated
10.3%

Stage progression · Norway

, 50,000 sims

81.5%AdvAdvance from group
41.2%R16Round of 16
19.1%QFQuarter-final
8.4%SFSemi-final
3.1%FFinal
1.1%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Norway

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Ecuador16%

Germany14%

Ivory Coast10%

R16

Round of 16

Brazil22%

Germany11%

Morocco8%

Quarter-final

England13%

Brazil9%

Morocco8%

Semi-final

Argentina19%

Spain14%

Portugal11%

Final

Argentina16%

Spain12%

France12%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

التشكيلة

Confirmed squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Ørjan Nyland#1Jersey-boosted↗Sevilla

69c63save%0.48

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Julian Ryerson#26↗Borussia Dortmund

41c29tackles0.77

Marcus Holmgren Pedersen#16Torino

31c—0.64

Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajer#3Jersey-boostedBrentford

50c—0.00

Leo Østigård#4Jersey-boostedGenoa

36c—0.00

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Martin Ødegaard#10Caps-driven↗Arsenal

67c18assists0.82

Sander Berge#8Jersey-boosted→Fulham

64c5assists0.31

Patrick Berg#6Jersey-boosted↘Bodø/Glimt

41c0assists0.51

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Alexander Sørloth#7Goals-driven↘Atlético Madrid

70c26goals0.86

Erling Braut Haaland#9Jersey-boostedManchester City

49c55goals0.00

Jørgen Strand Larsen#11Jersey-boosted↘Crystal Palace

26c4goals0.33

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Egil Selvik#13Jersey-boostedWatford★ Likely first sub

6c—0.61

Sander Tangvik#12Jersey-boostedHamburg★ Likely first sub

0c—0.49

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Fredrik André Bjørkan#15Jersey-boostedBodø/Glimt★ Likely first subimpact 2/100

19c—0.43

David Møller Wolfe#5Jersey-boostedWolverhampton Wanderersimpact 12/100

20c—0.24

Torbjørn Heggem#17Jersey-boostedBologna★ Likely first sub

13c—0.36

Sondre Langås#24Rating-drivenDerby County★ Likely first sub

2c—0.52

Henrik Falchener#25Jersey-boostedViking

1c—0.00

Midfielders (8)

PlayerStat

Kristian Thorstvedt#18↗Sassuolo★ Likely first subimpact 34/100

35c7assists0.62

Oscar Bobb#22Rating-drivenFulham★ Likely first sub

18c3assists0.86

Antonio Nusa#20↗RB Leipzigimpact 44/100

22c9assists0.64

Morten Thorsby#2Jersey-boosted→Cremoneseimpact 23/100

30c4assists0.23

Andreas Schjelderup#21Rating-drivenBenfica★ Likely first sub

10c3assists0.71

Jens Petter Hauge#23Rating-drivenBodø/Glimtimpact 7/100

14c0assists0.47

Fredrik Aursnes#14Jersey-boostedBenfica

20c—0.00

Thelo Aasgaard#19Jersey-boostedRangers

6c1assists0.31

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.143; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 43%; 3 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Sevilla1
Brentford1
Borussia Dortmund1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Alexander SørlothStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.64gap to repl.
Martin ØdegaardAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Thelo Aasgaard · 0.31Rangers0.58gap to repl.
Julian RyersonFull-backLikely cover: Fredrik André Bjørkan · 0.43Bodø/Glimt0.35gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

جدول المجموعة

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 16, 2026	Iraq	Foxborough, United States
2	Jun 22, 2026	Senegal	East Rutherford, United States
3	Jun 26, 2026	France	Foxborough, United States

المواجهات المباشرة

هدّافو Norway المتوقعون →

قصص

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

Form trend

Gained 88 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1964.

Scoring form

Averaged 3.36 xG per match across 8 recent internationals — #1 of 35 in the field for attacking output.

Top scorerAlexander Sørloth

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 35% probability of scoring at least once, rank #1 of all players.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

الحالة والسجل

Statistical profile

Balanced

Attack

Attack rating1.0213th/48

Shots per match15.94th/48

Chance quality0.1912nd/48

Defence

Defence rating0.7725th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5227th/48

GK: Ørjan Nyland

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share13.6%20th/48

Penalty conversion72.0%33rd/48

Penalty save rate20.0%40th/48

Style

Possession56.2%8th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,75618th/48

Club familiarity0.00037th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Norway hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.

Group-stage matchups

vs Iraq

Win62.2%

Draw24.5%

Loss13.3%

Expected goals for1.81

Expected goals against0.65

Likeliest score0-1 (14.9%)

Both teams score40.6%

Clean sheet52.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Senegal

Win36.4%

Draw27.5%

Loss36.1%

Expected goals for1.12

Expected goals against1.06

Likeliest score1-1 (14.1%)

Both teams score44.6%

Clean sheet34.7%

Full fixture analysis →

vs France

Win18.4%

Draw23.9%

Loss57.7%

Expected goals for0.92

Expected goals against1.71

Likeliest score1-1 (11.9%)

Both teams score49.6%

Clean sheet18.1%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record7W · 2D · 1L

Goals31–6

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	HSwitzerland	0–0	D	Friendly
2026-03-27	ANetherlands	1–2	L	Friendly
2025-11-16	AItaly	4–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-13	HEstonia	4–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-14	HNew Zealand	1–1	D	Friendly
2025-10-11	HIsrael	5–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-09	HMoldova	11–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04	HFinland	1–0	W	Friendly
2025-06-09	AEstonia	1–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-06	HItaly	3–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
France	16	5-4-7	2014 — Loss (0–4) · Friendly
Senegal	1	0-0-1	2006 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly
Iraq	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
UEFA Euro	2000	Group stage	1-1-1	New head coach since then — now Ståle Solbakken (appointed 2020) 0/30 of current pool (0%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	1998	Round of 16	1-2-1	New head coach since then — now Ståle Solbakken (appointed 2020) 0/30 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Italy · Euro 1996
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1940) and group draw.
Spain · Euro 1996
Exited at the quarter-final
Netherlands · World Cup 1998
Finished fourth

نظرة عامة على البطولة

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group I finish · Norway?

Stage progression · Norway?

Likely knockout path · Norway

التشكيلة

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

جدول المجموعة

Group-stage schedule

المواجهات المباشرة

قصص

الحالة والسجل

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

Group I finish · Norway

Stage progression · Norway

Confirmed squad