Norway

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

UEFA·المجموعة I·FIFA #29

R16 contender

Elite-attacking side led by Alexander Sørloth.

منافس
France (#3)
رئيسي
Erling Haaland (FW)
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Final squad announced · Norway · 2026-05-22

Source: Town & Country Magazine ↗

WC2026 results

Record3W · 0D · 2L
Goals11:10 (+1)
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultVenue
Jun 16Iraq4–1WFoxborough
Jun 22Senegal3–2WEast Rutherford
Jun 26France1–4LFoxborough
Jun 30Ivory Coast2–1WDallas
Jul 11England1–2LMiami
1

نظرة عامة على البطولة

Analysis

Norway sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.0% tournament probability (16th in the field). Drawn in Group I alongside France, Senegal, Iraq, they are projected at 83.7% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Limited recent tournament data is available for Norway's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.

Path to success

Norway face France, Senegal, Iraq in Group I, with a 83.7% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 19.2%, though reaching the semi-finals (8.4%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.

What they must execute

Norway will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Norway broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

1.0%Win probability16th in field
1912Elo ratingRanked 12th globally
0.191xG per shot2nd in the field
43.7%Tournament goal probability — Erling HaalandTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)
6.4 yearsManager tenureStåle Solbakken
83.7%Group stage advance probabilityGroup I

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Norway. Insufficient match coverage.

Percentiles position Norway against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group I finish · Norway

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    22.3%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    36.8%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    31.0%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    9.9%

Stage progression · Norway

, 100,000 sims
  1. 82.4%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 40.9%R16Round of 16
  3. 17.2%QFQuarter-final
  4. 6.8%SFSemi-final
  5. 2.2%FFinal
  6. 0.6%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Norway

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Ecuador15%
Germany13%
Ivory Coast12%

R16

Round of 16

Brazil20%
Germany11%
Morocco9%

QF

Quarter-final

England10%
Brazil10%
Mexico7%

SF

Semi-final

Argentina16%
Spain12%
Colombia9%

F

Final

Argentina13%
Spain11%
Brazil9%
2

التشكيلة

Confirmed squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Ørjan Nyland#1Jersey-boosted↗Sevilla
69c63save%0.48
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Kristoffer Ajer#3Jersey-boostedBrentford
50c—0.44
DF
Julian Ryerson#26↗Borussia Dortmund
41c29tackles0.77
DF
Leo Skiri Østigård#4Jersey-boostedGenoa
36c—0.57
DF
Marcus Holmgren Pedersen#16Torino
31c—0.64
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Martin Ødegaard#10Caps-driven↗Arsenal
67c18assists0.82
MF
Sander Berge#8Jersey-boosted→Fulham
64c5assists0.31
MF
Patrick Berg#6Jersey-boosted↘Bodø/Glimt
41c0assists0.51
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Alexander Sørloth#7Goals-driven↘Atlético Madrid
70c26goals0.86
FW
Erling Haaland#9Goals-drivenManchester City
49c55goals0.99
FW
Jørgen Strand Larsen#11Jersey-boosted↘Crystal Palace
26c4goals0.33
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Egil Selvik#13Jersey-boostedWatford★ Likely first sub
6c—0.61
GK
Sander Tangvik#12Jersey-boostedHamburg★ Likely first sub
0c—0.49
Defenders (5)
PlayerStat
DF
Fredrik André Bjørkan#15Jersey-boostedBodø/Glimt★ Likely first subimpact 2/100
19c—0.43
DF
David Møller Wolfe#5Jersey-boostedWolverhampton Wanderersimpact 12/100
20c—0.24
DF
Torbjørn Heggem#17Jersey-boostedBologna★ Likely first sub
13c—0.36
DF
Sondre Langås#24Rating-drivenDerby County★ Likely first sub
2c—0.52
DF
Henrik Falchener#25Jersey-boostedViking
1c—0.00
Midfielders (8)
PlayerStat
MF
Kristian Thorstvedt#18↗Sassuolo★ Likely first subimpact 34/100
35c7assists0.62
MF
Oscar Bobb#22Rating-drivenFulham★ Likely first sub
18c3assists0.86
MF
Antonio Nusa#20↗RB Leipzigimpact 44/100
22c9assists0.64
MF
Morten Thorsby#2Jersey-boosted→Cremoneseimpact 23/100
30c4assists0.23
MF
Andreas Schjelderup#21Rating-drivenBenfica★ Likely first sub
10c3assists0.71
MF
Jens Petter Hauge#23Rating-drivenBodø/Glimtimpact 7/100
14c0assists0.47
MF
Fredrik Aursnes#14Jersey-boostedBenfica
20c—0.00
MF
Thelo Aasgaard#19Jersey-boostedRangers
6c1assists0.31
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes
0.00%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.143
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
43%
3 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Sevilla1
  • Brentford1
  • Borussia Dortmund1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Erling HaalandStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.75gap to repl.
  2. Alexander SørlothStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.62gap to repl.
  3. Martin ØdegaardAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Thelo Aasgaard · 0.31Rangers0.51gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

جدول المجموعة

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 16, 2026IraqFoxborough, United States
2Jun 22, 2026SenegalEast Rutherford, United States
3Jun 26, 2026FranceFoxborough, United States

المواجهات المباشرة

هدّافو Norway المتوقعون →

4

قصص

Storylines

Updated 49 days ago
Form trend

Gained 88 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1964.

Scoring form

Averaged 3.36 xG per match across 8 recent internationals — #1 of 35 in the field for attacking output.

Top scorerAlexander Sørloth

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 35% probability of scoring at least once, rank #1 of all players.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

5

الحالة والسجل

Video analysis: Norway

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 18 players observed, 22 events tracked.

10
HaalandStandout performer

Scored a hat-trick, including a spectacular bicycle kick, proving decisive for Norway.

3 goals
9
Goals
4
Shots
4
Saves
1
Blocks
1
Fouls won
0
Cards
Rating spread(26 ratings)
8+ (9)7 (10)6 (5)5- (2)

Match by match

gs-018
2 goals
gs-042
gs-065
2 goals3 shots
r16-003
5 goals1 shots
r32-006

Player ratings (18)

10
Haaland1 app · 3 events
3 goals
10
▼

Scored a hat-trick, including a spectacular bicycle kick, proving decisive for Norway.

r16-00310Scored a hat-trick, including a spectacular bicycle kick, proving decisive for Norway.
9
Nyland1 app · 3 events
3 saves
9
▼

Delivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, including a penalty, keeping Norway in the match.

r16-0039Delivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, including a penalty, keeping Norway in the match.
8.5
Erling Haaland4 apps · 5 events
3 goals
9988
▼

Scored two crucial goals, leading Norway's attack and securing a dominant victory.

gs-0189Scored two crucial goals, leading Norway's attack and securing a dominant victory.
gs-0429Scored two clinical goals, showcasing his predatory instincts and leading the attack effectively.
gs-0658Scored Norway's winning goal with a composed finish, securing the victory for his team.
r32-0068Scored the decisive winning goal for Norway with a clinical finish, securing their victory despite being isolated for much of the first half.
8
Schjelderup1 app · 2 events
2 goals
8
▼

Scored a goal with a decisive strike after a skillful dribbling run, showcasing good attacking instinct and agility.

r16-0038Scored a goal with a decisive strike after a skillful dribbling run, showcasing good attacking instinct and agility.
8
Leo Østigård1 app
8
▼

Scored a goal from a set-piece, contributing significantly to the scoreline from defense.

gs-0428Scored a goal from a set-piece, contributing significantly to the scoreline from defense.
8
Norway Goalkeeper1 app
8
▼

Made several important saves throughout the match, including a crucial one in added time to preserve the lead.

r32-0068Made several important saves throughout the match, including a crucial one in added time to preserve the lead.
7
Thelo Aasgaard1 app · 1 events
1 goal
7
▼

Scored Norway's only goal, providing a brief moment of hope and demonstrating clinical finishing.

gs-0657Scored Norway's only goal, providing a brief moment of hope and demonstrating clinical finishing.
7
Oscar Bobb3 apps · 2 events
1 shot (1 on target)1 fouls won
777
▼

Had a good shot on goal that was saved and contributed to Norway's attacking pressure.

gs-0427Had a good shot on goal that was saved and contributed to Norway's attacking pressure.
gs-0657Earned a penalty for Norway and had a shot on target, demonstrating his attacking intent and ability to create danger.
r32-0067Delivered a crucial pass that directly led to Haaland's winning goal, showcasing his impact from the bench.
7
Torbjørn Heggem2 apps · 1 events
1 block
77
▼

Made a crucial goal-line clearance, preventing a second goal and demonstrating strong defensive awareness.

gs-0657Made a crucial goal-line clearance, preventing a second goal and demonstrating strong defensive awareness.
r32-0067Made a vital goal-line block that prevented Ivory Coast from scoring, preserving Norway's lead.
7
Møller Dæhli1 app
7
▼

Provided a crucial assist for the opening goal, demonstrating good vision and passing.

gs-0427Provided a crucial assist for the opening goal, demonstrating good vision and passing.
7
Martin Ødegaard1 app
7
▼

Provided the assist for Norway's opening goal, demonstrating his playmaking ability.

r32-0067Provided the assist for Norway's opening goal, demonstrating his playmaking ability.
6.5
Patrick Berg2 apps · 2 events
1 shot (1 on target)
76
▼

Provided a well-weighted assist for Haaland's winning goal, directly contributing to the decisive moment of the match.

gs-0657Provided a well-weighted assist for Haaland's winning goal, directly contributing to the decisive moment of the match.
r16-0036Registered a good shot on target that tested the goalkeeper, contributing to Norway's offensive efforts.
6.5
Antonio Nusa2 apps
76
▼

Showed good movement and ball control, drawing a foul in a dangerous area.

gs-0427Showed good movement and ball control, drawing a foul in a dangerous area.
gs-0656Mentioned as scoring Norway's opening goal in observations, but this is contradicted by match events. No other specific actions highlighted.
6
Jørgen Strand Larsen1 app · 1 events
1 shot (1 on target)
6
▼

Had a shot saved by the French goalkeeper, indicating an attempt to challenge the opposition.

gs-0656Had a shot saved by the French goalkeeper, indicating an attempt to challenge the opposition.
6
Diop1 app
6
▼

Drew a foul in midfield, contributing to possession and relieving pressure.

gs-0426Drew a foul in midfield, contributing to possession and relieving pressure.
6
Solbakken1 app
6
▼

Was involved in an early disallowed goal and had a close-range attempt, showing attacking presence.

r16-0036Was involved in an early disallowed goal and had a close-range attempt, showing attacking presence.
5
Egil Selvik1 app · 1 events
1 save
5
▼

Made several crucial saves to prevent France from scoring more, despite ultimately conceding multiple goals.

gs-0655Made several crucial saves to prevent France from scoring more, despite ultimately conceding multiple goals.
4
Kristian Thorstvedt1 app · 1 events
1 shot (1 on target)
4
▼

Missed a crucial penalty opportunity that could have brought Norway closer and changed the game's dynamic.

gs-0654Missed a crucial penalty opportunity that could have brought Norway closer and changed the game's dynamic.

Match observations

  • gs-018The match concluded with Norway securing a dominant 4-1 victory over Iraq.
  • gs-018The game featured a lively atmosphere, with both sets of supporters passionately engaging in chants and celebrations throughout the contest.
  • gs-018Norway's attacking prowess was evident, particularly through the performance of their star striker, Erling Haaland.
  • gs-042The match was a competitive affair with both teams creating numerous chances.
  • gs-042Norway showed resilience in their attacking efforts, particularly in the second half, while Morocco relied on quick transitions and individual skill.
  • gs-042The game featured a lot of end-to-end action, with goalkeepers on both sides being tested.
  • gs-065France displayed a highly effective attacking performance, particularly in the first half, with Ousmane Dembélé leading the charge.
  • gs-065Norway struggled to contain France's offensive movements but showed resilience by creating their own chances and scoring once.
  • gs-065The match was characterized by a high number of goal-scoring opportunities for both sides, with France converting theirs more efficiently.
  • r16-003Brazil dominated possession and created numerous chances throughout the match, particularly in the first half.
  • r16-003Norway, however, was highly effective on the counter-attack, primarily through the prolific finishing of Haaland.
  • r16-003The match was characterized by Brazil's attacking pressure and Norway's resilient defense, anchored by their goalkeeper, and clinical efficiency in front of goal.
  • r32-006The match was an exciting, end-to-end contest with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
  • r32-006Norway took an early lead, but Ivory Coast fought back with a moment of individual brilliance to equalize.
  • r32-006Both goalkeepers were called upon to make several important stops throughout the game.

Statistical profile

Balanced

Attack

Attack rating1.0213th/48
Shots per match15.94th/48
Chance quality0.1912nd/48

Defence

Defence rating0.7725th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5227th/48

GK: Ørjan Nyland

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share13.6%20th/48
Penalty conversion72.0%33rd/48
Penalty save rate20.0%40th/48

Style

Possession56.2%8th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,75618th/48
Club familiarity0.00037th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Norway hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.

Group-stage matchups

vs Iraq2026-06-16
Win73.0%
Draw21.7%
Loss5.3%
Expected goals for1.91
Expected goals against0.61
Likeliest score0-1 (14.8%)
Both teams score39.5%
Clean sheet54.4%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Senegal2026-06-22
Win42.5%
Draw26.1%
Loss31.4%
Expected goals for1.21
Expected goals against1.15
Likeliest score1-1 (13.9%)
Both teams score48.8%
Clean sheet31.6%
Full fixture analysis →
vs France2026-06-26
Win14.5%
Draw23.3%
Loss62.2%
Expected goals for0.89
Expected goals against1.74
Likeliest score1-0 (11.9%)
Both teams score49.2%
Clean sheet17.6%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24
Norway — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 12 snapshotsNorway trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1912.0 to 1912.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.5% to 1.2% (+0.6pp).Elo rating19021909191519222026-05-22 · Elo 1912.02026-06-06 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-23 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-24 · Elo 1912.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability<0.1%0.7%1.3%2.0%2026-05-22 · 0.5% (CI 0.2%–1.1%)2026-06-06 · 1.1% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (+0.6pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 1.1% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.9% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (−0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 1.0% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (+0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 1.0% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.4% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (−0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 1.0% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (+0.6pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 1.0% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 1.0% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-23 · 1.5% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (+0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-24 · 1.2% (CI 0.3%–1.8%) (−0.4pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24)

Norway trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1912.0 to 1912.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.5% to 1.2% (+0.6pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record7W · 2D · 1L
Goals31–6
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31HSwitzerland0–0DFriendly
2026-03-27ANetherlands1–2LFriendly
2025-11-16AItaly4–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-13HEstonia4–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-14HNew Zealand1–1DFriendly
2025-10-11HIsrael5–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-09HMoldova11–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04HFinland1–0WFriendly
2025-06-09AEstonia1–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-06HItaly3–0WFIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
France165-4-72014 — Loss (0–4) · Friendly
Senegal21-0-12026 — Win (3–2) · FIFA World Cup
Iraq11-0-02026 — Win (4–1) · FIFA World Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
UEFA Euro2000Group stage1-1-1
  • New head coach since then — now Ståle Solbakken (appointed 2020)
  • 0/30 of current pool (0%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup1998Round of 161-2-1
  • New head coach since then — now Ståle Solbakken (appointed 2020)
  • 0/30 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • Italy · Euro 1996

    Exited at the group stage

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1940) and group draw.

  • Spain · Euro 1996

    Exited at the quarter-final

  • Netherlands · World Cup 1998

    Finished fourth

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