The shipping Hierarchical-Poisson fit (scripts/fit_hierarchical_poisson.py) is a MAP point estimate via L-BFGS-B. It is fast and is the production prediction surface, but it gives no measure of uncertainty on per-fixture P(H/D/A). The improvements-roadmap (§1.3) flagged this as the next methodology upgrade — not a Brier-chasing change (point-estimate Brier is already at the calibration plateau) but a publishable methodology one: the model now reports how confident it is in each forecast, a…
Nota de pesquisa
Hierarchical Poisson — full PyMC NUTS posterior
Status: Shipped as a methodology surface (posterior-median P(H/D/A) gates parity with MAP; per-fixture credible intervals now publishable)Data do backtest: 27 May 2026Resumo + nota completa · 1,696 palavras
Resumo
Nota completa
Standard Pass
Leia a nota de pesquisa completa
Hierarchical Poisson — full PyMC NUTS posterior tem 1,696 palavras. O Standard Pass desbloqueia todas as notas de pesquisa na íntegra, além da previsão completa e das avaliações por seleção e por jogador, válido durante todo o torneio.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.