The shipping Hierarchical-Poisson fit (scripts/fit_hierarchical_poisson.py) is a MAP point estimate via L-BFGS-B. It is fast and is the production prediction surface, but it gives no measure of uncertainty on per-fixture P(H/D/A). The improvements-roadmap (§1.3) flagged this as the next methodology upgrade — not a Brier-chasing change (point-estimate Brier is already at the calibration plateau) but a publishable methodology one: the model now reports how confident it is in each forecast, a…
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Hierarchical Poisson — full PyMC NUTS posterior
Status: Shipped as a methodology surface (posterior-median P(H/D/A) gates parity with MAP; per-fixture credible intervals now publishable)Backtestdatum: 27 May 2026Samenvatting + volledige notitie · 1,696 woorden
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Hierarchical Poisson — full PyMC NUTS posterior telt 1,696 woorden. De Standard Pass ontgrendelt elke onderzoeksnotitie in zijn geheel, plus de volledige voorspelling en beoordelingen per team en per speler, geldig gedurende het toernooi.
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