Medido em público

24 Jun 2026

Cada probabilidade abaixo foi publicada antes do início e travada. Esta página avalia cada uma em relação ao que realmente aconteceu.

6 de 6 jogos avaliados
2
Acertou em cheio
Alta confiança, resultado certo
3
Boa leitura
Deu a maior probabilidade ao que aconteceu
0
Esperado
O resultado ficou dentro da faixa
1
Surpresa
O modelo não previu isso

Média do dia: Strong read

  • MexicovsCzech Republic
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    3 – 0
    • Mexico · realizado45.7%
    • Empate26.8%
    • Czech Republic27.5%
    Veredito
    Strong read

    Mexico 3–0 Czech Republic was the outcome the model rated most likely (45.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.443, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Mexico
    9Julián QuiñonesSTQuiñones was instrumental in Mexico's attack, scoring two goals and providing an assist, showcasing excellent finishing and movement.
    8Raúl JiménezSTJiménez scored a crucial goal, demonstrating good positioning and finishing to extend Mexico's lead.
    8Luis ChávezCMChávez scored a brilliant individual goal, showcasing composure and skill in a counter-attacking move.
    Czech Republic
    6Ladislav KrejčíCMKrejčí showed some attacking intent with a shot from a free kick, but it didn't lead to a goal.
    6Yeboah ZamoraSTYeboah Zamora created several scoring opportunities but was unable to convert them, highlighting a struggle with finishing.
    6GalindezGKGalindez made one spectacular save but conceded multiple goals, reflecting a mixed performance under heavy pressure.
  • South AfricavsSouth Korea
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    1 – 0
    • South Africa · realizado16.6%
    • Empate25.9%
    • South Korea57.5%
    Veredito
    Surprise result

    South Africa 1–0 South Korea was an outcome the model rated at 16.6% (16.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.093, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Read: what the model missed →

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    South Africa
    8Siphesihle SitholeCFScored a crucial goal and was involved in winning a foul that led to a booking.
    8Sipho ZondiGKMade crucial saves, particularly in the second half, to secure the clean sheet and preserve the lead.
    8MashegoSTScored a goal and was a constant threat with his dribbling and close-range efforts.
    South Korea
    9KOR GoalkeeperGKMade numerous crucial and spectacular saves, single-handedly keeping his team in the match despite constant pressure.
    6KOR #3CBMade a defensive block but was part of a defense that ultimately conceded two goals.
    4Do-hyun RyuLMFReceived a yellow card for a foul and had no other notable positive contributions.
  • CanadavsSwitzerland
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    1 – 2
    • Canada22.6%
    • Empate24.6%
    • Switzerland · realizado52.7%
    Veredito
    Strong read

    Canada 1–2 Switzerland was the outcome the model rated most likely (52.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.335, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Canada
    8SalibaCMScored Canada's only goal, reducing the deficit with a powerful shot.
    7BorjanGKMade a crucial early save to keep his team in the game.
    7Stephen EustáquioCMDelivered a dangerous free-kick that almost led to a goal.
    Switzerland
    9Johan ManzambiSTContributed a goal and a crucial assist, directly impacting two of Switzerland's goals.
    8Breel EmboloSTScored Switzerland's opening goal and maintained a strong attacking presence.
    8Rubén VargasAMScored a goal and maintained an attacking threat throughout the match.
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinavsQatar
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    3 – 1
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina · realizado50.2%
    • Empate26.4%
    • Qatar23.5%
    Veredito
    Strong read

    Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar was the outcome the model rated most likely (50.2% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.373, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    9Ermedin DemirovićSTScored two crucial goals, including a penalty, but received a yellow card for excessive celebration.
    8Ivan BašićCMScored the opening goal with a composed finish, setting the tone for his team's strong attacking performance.
    8Ivan ŠunjićCMScored a spectacular long-range goal before being substituted at half-time, showcasing excellent striking ability.
    Qatar
    10Akram AfifLWScored a hat-trick with clinical finishing, proving to be Qatar's most dangerous player and a constant threat on the counter-attack.
    8Hassan Al-HaydosAMScored a goal from close range, demonstrating good positioning and contributing to Qatar's first-half comeback.
    8Pedro MiguelRBScored a powerful goal from inside the box early in the second half, significantly boosting Qatar's comeback efforts.
  • BrazilvsScotland
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    3 – 0
    • Brazil · realizado71.1%
    • Empate19.5%
    • Scotland9.4%
    Veredito
    Nailed it

    Brazil 3–0 Scotland was the outcome the model rated most likely (71.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.130, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Brazil
    9Vinicius Jr.LWScored two crucial goals, including the opener, and was a relentless attacking force throughout the match.
    8Bruno GuimarãesCMDelivered a crucial assist for Brazil's third goal, showcasing excellent vision and precise passing from midfield.
    8Gabriel MartinelliForwardScored a decisive goal with a close-range finish, contributing to Brazil's dominant performance.
    Scotland
    7Angus GunnGKMade several impressive saves throughout the match, preventing Brazil from scoring an even larger number of goals.
    6Nathan PattersonRBMade a vital goal-line block, showing commitment in a challenging defensive performance for Scotland.
    6Scott McTominayCMWas one of Scotland's few attacking threats, forcing the Brazilian goalkeeper into making saves.
  • MoroccovsHaiti
    AvaliadoTravada em 10 Jun
    4 – 2
    • Morocco · realizado77.6%
    • Empate17.3%
    • Haiti5.1%
    Veredito
    Nailed it

    Morocco 4–2 Haiti was the outcome the model rated most likely (77.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.083, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Morocco
    8Achraf HakimiRBNetted a crucial equalizer for Morocco and created danger with a well-taken free-kick.
    8SabiriCMConverted the decisive fifth penalty in the shootout, securing victory for Morocco under pressure.
    Haiti
    8JosephSTScored Haiti's opening goal with a clinical finish, giving his team an early lead.
    6Jean-Kévin DuverneCBWas part of the defensive line under pressure during a Moroccan goal, but the team conceded.
    6Wilson IsidorSTShowed forward intent by participating in an offensive move for Haiti without a direct goal contribution.

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.

Model report card — 24 Jun 2026 · onthepitch