Group A · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
South Africa's balanced setup will need to hold shape against South Korea's direct transition game. The risk for South Africa: getting caught between attacking and defending. South Africa will expect to hold 52% possession. South Korea need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
South Korea will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Son Heung-min's 12.6% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is South Africa's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Hugo Broos (5 years in charge of South Africa) vs Hong Myung-bo (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Kim Seung-gyu. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for South Africa or South Korea.
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 24 Jun
South Africa
South Africa come in at close to full strength.
South Korea
South Korea come in at close to full strength.
South Africa and South Korea both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, South Africa minus South Korea: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 46'SubstitutionHwang Hee-Chan· Son Heung-MinSouth Korea change: Son Heung-Min.
- 46'SubstitutionPaik Seung-Ho· Kim Jin-GyuSouth Korea change: Kim Jin-Gyu.
- 46'SubstitutionLee Tae-Seok· J. CastropSouth Korea change: J. Castrop.
- SubstitutionO. Appollis· T. MoremiSouth Africa change: T. Moremi.62'
- GoalT. Maseko· T. MoremiT. Maseko scores for South Africa.63'
- 66'SubstitutionKim Min-Jae· Park Jin-SeobSouth Korea change: Park Jin-Seob.
- Yellow cardA. Modiba· FoulA. Modiba is booked — Foul.73'
- 74'SubstitutionOh Hyeon-Gyu· Cho Gue-SungSouth Korea change: Cho Gue-Sung.
- SubstitutionT. Maseko· I. RaynersSouth Africa change: I. Rayners.75'
- 79'Yellow cardCho Gue-Sung· RoughingCho Gue-Sung is booked — Roughing.
- SubstitutionR. Mofokeng· J. AdamsSouth Africa change: J. Adams.80'
Player involvement
South Africa
South Korea
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–116.8%
- 0–016.4%
- 1–113.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–29.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.