Group A · Matchday 3

← Maç öncesi tahmin
Scheduled
South Africa
–:–
South Korea

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • South Africa win
    18.5%
  • Draw
    26.8%
  • South Korea win
    54.7%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model gives South Korea a moderate advantage at 54.7% versus 18.5% for South Africa (draw 26.8%). The Elo gap is substantial at 228 points in South Korea's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group A fixture with advance probabilities of 22.9% for South Africa and 75.9% for South Korea.

Tactical matchup

South Africa (balanced) meet South Korea (counter attacker) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. South Africa typically dominate possession (52%) compared to South Korea's 44% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.

Key battlegrounds

South Korea will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Evidence Makgopa (P(scores) 4.7%) against Son Heung-min (12.6%) — their impact could prove decisive. South Korea play a more direct game while South Africa build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

South Africa's Hugo Broos (5.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Hong Myung-bo (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

For Kim Seung-gyu, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.

Key numbers

18.5% / 26.8% / 54.7%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-228Elo differentialSouth Africa 1524 vs South Korea 1752
0.85 – 1.27Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
0-1 (14.7%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
41.7%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
12.6%P(goal) — Son Heung-minHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 3

One side faces significant midfield concerns, with key players potentially unavailable, impacting their tactical setup. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how South Africa v South Korea plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Canlı olasılık nasıl çalışır. Yayımlanan maç öncesi tahmin, kadro kilidi anında (T-1s) dondurulur ve başlama vuruşundan sonra değişmez; maç sonrası değerlendirme bu dondurulmuş sayıyı sonuçla karşılaştırır. Maç sırasında gösterilen canlı kazanma olasılığı, aynı modelin mevcut skora ve kalan süreye göre yeniden okunmasıdır. Yaklaşık dakikada bir yenilenir, her zaman gecikmelidir ve betimleyici bir araştırma rakamıdır; bir şans oyunu ürünü ya da herhangi bir türde fiyat değildir. Tam çerçeve için /docs/methodology/ sayfasına bakın.