Group G · Matchday 2
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Belgium win50.8%
- Draw25.4%
- Iran win23.8%
Analysis
The model gives Belgium a moderate advantage at 50.8% versus 23.8% for Iran (draw 25.4%). A 107-point Elo gap gives Belgium a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group G fixture with advance probabilities of 97.2% for Belgium and 83.2% for Iran.
Tactical matchup
Belgium (balanced) meet Iran (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Belgium typically dominate possession (54%) compared to Iran's 33% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Belgium press significantly higher (PPDA 23.1) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Iran will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Kevin De Bruyne (P(scores) 8.0%) against Mehdi Taremi (3.4%) — their impact could prove decisive. Iran play a more direct game while Belgium build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Axel Witsel, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Belgium or Iran.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 2
Belgium's squad faces some significant availability questions, while their opponents are at full strength. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Belgium v Iran plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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