Group G · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Belgium's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Iran's direct transition game. The risk for Belgium: getting caught between attacking and defending. Belgium's aggressive press (PPDA 23.1) against Iran's deeper build-up (PPDA 29.0) creates a clear territory question: can Belgium force errors high up, or will Iran play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Iran will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Kevin De Bruyne's 7.1% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iran's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Axel Witsel. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Belgium or Iran.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 21 Jun
Belgium and Iran both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Belgium minus Iran: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardR. Lukaku· RoughingR. Lukaku is booked — Roughing.3'
- 25'VAR reviewM. TaremiVAR review under way.
- 33'Yellow cardS. Ezatolahi· HoldingS. Ezatolahi is booked — Holding.
- 46'SubstitutionS. Hardani· A. JahanbakhshIran change: A. Jahanbakhsh.
- SubstitutionT. Meunier· T. CastagneBelgium change: T. Castagne.58'
- SubstitutionN. Raskin· H. VanakenBelgium change: H. Vanaken.58'
- SubstitutionA. Saelemaekers· D. LukebakioBelgium change: D. Lukebakio.58'
- 66'SubstitutionE. Hajsafi· M. MohammadiIran change: M. Mohammadi.
- 66'SubstitutionM. Mohebi· M. TorabiIran change: M. Torabi.
- Red cardN. Ngoy· HoldingN. Ngoy is sent off — Holding.66'
- SubstitutionR. Lukaku· A. TheateBelgium change: A. Theate.73'
- 79'SubstitutionS. Ghoddos· S. MoghanlouIran change: S. Moghanlou.
- 85'SubstitutionS. Ezatolahi· A. HosseinzadehIran change: A. Hosseinzadeh.
- SubstitutionK. De Bruyne· M. Fernandez-PardoBelgium change: M. Fernandez-Pardo.87'
Player involvement
Belgium
Iran
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.