South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 to reach the knockout round for the first time. Brazil topped Group C with a Vinicius Jr brace. Morocco came back from behind against Haiti in a six-goal match. Mexico finished Group A with a perfect record: nine points from nine.
June 24: the scorecard
| Match | Result | P(result) | Brier | Elo gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs Czechia | 3-0 | 45.7% | 0.482 | +134 MEX |
| South Africa vs South Korea | 1-0 | 16.6% | 1.196 | +228 KOR |
| Canada vs Switzerland | 1-2 | 52.7% | 0.359 | +105 SUI |
| Bosnia vs Qatar | 3-1 | 50.2% | 0.398 | +169 BIH |
| Brazil vs Scotland | 3-0 | 71.1% | 0.133 | +217 BRA |
| Morocco vs Haiti | 4-2 | 77.6% | 0.082 | +290 MAR |
Mean Brier: 0.442. Five correct directional calls, one miss. Running mean through 54 matches: 0.541. Directional accuracy through the tournament: 33 of 54 (61.1%).
Brazil 3-0 Scotland: the headline
The model had Brazil at 71.1%, with a 217-point Elo advantage (1984 vs 1767). Vinicius Junior scored twice, the first after a defensive error by McKenna in the seventh minute, the second a header from a cross just before half-time. Cunha added the third after a clever pass from Bruno Guimaraes.
Scotland had moments. McTominay's header from a free-kick was saved by Alisson. Patterson went down in the box, but the referee waved away penalty appeals. A second Vinicius goal was ruled out by VAR for a foul on Hendry. The disallowed goal came after a review of contact in the build-up, one of three VAR interventions in the match.
Neymar came off the bench in the 76th minute, replacing Fabinho (who had come on for Casemiro at 65'). It was Neymar's tournament debut after recovering from a right calf injury. Brazil top Group C with seven points and a squad composite rating of 0.66, the fifth-highest in the tournament.
Brier: 0.133, the fifth-best individual call of the entire tournament. The model read the quality gap correctly. Scotland, eliminated, leave with a Matchday 1 win over Haiti and not much else.
South Africa 1-0 South Korea: the miss
This was the model's biggest miss of the day. South Korea at 57.5%, South Africa at 16.6%. The Elo gap was 228 points (1752 vs 1524), the widest on the day's card. The model backed Korea as marginal favourites.
Thapelo Maseko headed the winner at 63 minutes from a Moremi cross. South Korea made three half-time substitutions, bringing on Son Heungmin among others, but could not break through. South Africa's goalkeeper came up with saves to protect the lead, and the defensive shape held. South Africa had Maseko substituted off at 74' to bring on Rayners, and Mofokeng left for Adams at 79', both moves to shore up the defence.
South Africa advance to the knockout round for the first time. South Korea, eliminated, join Czech Republic at the bottom of Group A.
Brier: 1.196, the sixth-worst call of the tournament. For context, the five worst calls were all draws the model failed to predict. This was the model's worst non-draw miss: a genuine upset, not a draw surprise.
The lesson: Elo underrates tournament-specific momentum and defensive resilience. South Africa's two draws on Matchdays 1 and 2 hid a team that was tighter than the rating suggested. Their Elo (1524, rank 79) is the lowest of any team that has qualified for the knockout round so far.
Morocco 4-2 Haiti: the comeback
The model had Morocco at 77.6%, with a 290-point Elo advantage, the largest on the card. The match script made a mockery of any neat prediction.
Haiti scored first through Joseph in the ninth minute, assisted by Duverne. Morocco equalized through Achraf Hakimi at 38'. Wilson Isidor then struck a powerful shot at 42' to put Haiti ahead again, 2-1. Ismael Saibari equalized for Morocco just before half-time. Those were Haiti's first World Cup goals in 52 years, since their 1974 appearance in West Germany.
The second half was all Morocco. El Kaabi had a goal disallowed for offside at 55'. Morocco made a triple substitution at 70' (El Kaabi, Diaz, and Saibari off; Yassine, Ounahi, and Rahimi on). Rahimi scored at 77', then Yassine sealed it at 88'. A further double change at 82' brought on Mazraoui and El Mourabet.
Morocco qualify from Group C alongside Brazil. Haiti exit with zero points but their two goals will be remembered.
Brier: 0.082, the fifth-best call of the entire tournament. The direction was right and the margin comfortable despite Haiti's early lead. The model correctly identified the quality gap, even as the match produced six goals and two lead changes.
Mexico 3-0 Czechia: the perfect group
Mexico had already qualified with six points from two wins. Three second-half goals, from Chavez (55'), Quinones (61'), and substitute Fidalgo (90+3'), completed a perfect group stage. Nine points, six goals scored, zero conceded. Ochoa, who appeared in his sixth World Cup, was substituted off for Rangel at 77' with the game in hand.
The model had Mexico at only 45.7%, despite a 134-point Elo advantage (1860 vs 1726). Mexico's pre-tournament Elo (rank 20) did not account for home advantage in the way that results have since confirmed. The model's ensemble weights Elo alongside player composite and Dixon-Coles, but none of those models have an explicit home-tournament coefficient. Mexico's actual performance, three wins with no goals conceded, is the best group-stage run by a host since Russia in 2018.
Brier: 0.482. Correct direction, but the low confidence means the Brier penalty is moderate. Czechia finish bottom of Group A with one point.
Switzerland 2-1 Canada: the decider
Ruben Vargas scored the opener at 45', Johan Manzambi doubled the lead at 56'. Canada responded immediately: Promise David pulled one back less than a minute after coming on as substitute (replacing Tajon Buchanan via Liam Millar at 57'). But it was not enough.
The model had Switzerland at 52.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the card. Switzerland's Elo (1889, rank 16) comfortably exceeds Canada's (1784, rank 25), but the tournament form was tight. Both teams qualify: Switzerland top Group B with seven points, Canada reach the knockout round for the first time in their history with four points.
Brier: 0.359. A fair rating for a near-even call that went the right way.
Bosnia 3-1 Qatar: the wonder goal
Kerim Alajbegovic, 18 years old, scored a brilliant individual goal in the 29th minute. An own goal at 33' (Dzeko's shot deflected off a defender) doubled the lead. Hassan Al-Haydos scored Qatar's consolation at 41' from close range, making it 2-1 at the break. Bosnia made three half-time substitutions (Tahirovic and Memic on), then Ermin Mahmic, who had replaced Dzeko at 63', sealed it at 79'.
The model had Bosnia at 50.2%, another near-coin-flip, despite Bosnia's significant Elo advantage (1594 vs 1425, +169). Qatar are eliminated with three losses from three matches and a -8 goal difference.
Brier: 0.398. Direction correct on a closely-rated match.
Groups A, B, C: final standings
The first nine groups have their final tables. Here is how the model's probabilities lined up against actual results:
| Group A | W | D | L | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | +6 | 6 |
| South Africa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| South Korea | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Czech Republic | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| Group B | W | D | L | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | +4 | 7 |
| Canada | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +5 | 8 |
| Bosnia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| Qatar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8 | 2 |
| Group C | W | D | L | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | +6 | 7 |
| Morocco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | +3 | 6 |
| Scotland | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Haiti | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -6 | 2 |
Canada (4 pts, GD +5) and Bosnia (4 pts, GD -1) are separated only by goal difference. Bosnia's three-goal win over Qatar on the final day was not enough to overturn Canada's superior GD from earlier rounds.
The day's pattern: Elo vs tournament momentum
The theme of June 24 was the model's Elo framework undervaluing tournament-specific factors. Mexico, already through, played with freedom that Elo cannot measure. South Africa's defensive resilience, forged across two draws, translated into a historic win. Both results suggest that mid-tournament form matters more in Matchday 3 than pre-tournament ratings.
Five from six is a strong day. The Brier average (0.442) is higher than ideal because South Africa's upset was heavily penalized, but the model's honest 17% probability for that outcome was at least calibrated in the right direction: upsets happen, and a well-calibrated model should produce roughly one upset per six such calls.
Model health check: 54 matches in
Through 54 matches, the model's biggest structural weakness is draws. All five of the worst individual Brier scores in the tournament are draws the model missed:
| Match | Result | P(draw) | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| gs-015 | Draw | 10.5% | 1.572 |
| gs-034 | Draw | 15.0% | 1.397 |
| gs-004 | Draw | 15.4% | 1.353 |
| gs-047 (England 0-0 Ghana) | Draw | 16.8% | 1.322 |
| gs-021 | Draw | 19.3% | 1.220 |
Average Brier on draws: 1.104. Average Brier on non-draws: 0.344. The model treats draws as a residual category (rarely above 28% for any match), so when draws occur, the penalty is steep. 14 of 54 matches (25.9%) have been draws, roughly in line with historical World Cup rates (about 25%).
Calibration through 54 matches:
| Predicted range | Predicted mean | Observed frequency | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 21 |
| 10-20% | 15.4% | 24.1% | 29 |
| 20-30% | 25.2% | 20.8% | 53 |
| 30-40% | 34.1% | 71.4% | 7 |
| 40-50% | 44.2% | 40.0% | 10 |
| 50-60% | 54.8% | 53.8% | 13 |
| 60-70% | 66.0% | 80.0% | 15 |
| 70-80% | 75.3% | 55.6% | 9 |
The 50-60% bin is nearly perfectly calibrated (predicted 54.8%, observed 53.8%). The 30-40% bin is badly miscalibrated (predicted 34.1%, observed 71.4%), but this is driven by a tiny sample (n=7). The 70-80% bin shows overconfidence: predicted 75.3%, observed only 55.6%. The model's strongest favourites are winning less often than expected.
Overall ECE: 0.209. Overall log loss: 0.884. The last-10-match rolling Brier has dropped to 0.419, the best stretch of the tournament so far.
June 25: three groups, six matches, the last day of Matchday 3
Groups D, E, and F play their final group matches. The USA, Germany, and the Netherlands all have qualification in their own hands. Turkey and Tunisia are eliminated regardless of results.
Group D standings
| Team | W | D | L | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +5 | 6 |
| Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Australia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Group E standings
| Team | W | D | L | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +7 | 9 |
| Ivory Coast | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ecuador | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Curacao | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
Group F standings
| Team | W | D | L | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| Japan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| Sweden | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -8 | 1 |
Predictions
| Match | Group | Model H/D/A | Elo gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs Turkey | D | 29.0 / 27.6 / 43.4 | +181 TUR |
| Paraguay vs Australia | D | 34.4 / 31.3 / 34.4 | +50 PAR |
| Germany vs Ecuador | E | 40.4 / 28.4 / 31.2 | +10 ECU |
| Curacao vs Ivory Coast | E | 12.4 / 24.1 / 63.5 | ~+1676 CIV |
| Netherlands vs Tunisia | F | 58.5 / 27.0 / 14.5 | +325 NED |
| Japan vs Sweden | F | 45.1 / 27.7 / 27.1 | +185 JPN |
USA vs Turkey: hosts under pressure
The USA have won both matches and sit on six points. Turkey have lost both, have not scored, and are eliminated regardless. But Turkey's Elo (1902, rank 14) is 181 points higher than the USA's (1721, rank 41): on pure rating, Turkey are the stronger side by a wide margin. Turkey's squad composite (8.09) exceeds the USA's (7.12).
The model gives Turkey 43.4%, the USA 29.0%, with the draw at 27.6%. This is the widest gap between tournament form and underlying rating on the card. The USA's results so far (4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia) came against opponents rated below Turkey. Today is the quality test.
Tactically, this is a balanced-vs-pragmatic matchup. The USA's PPDA is 27.7 (a passive press), while Turkey's is 23.5 (slightly more aggressive). Possession splits are nearly even (49.9% USA, 49.5% Turkey). Turkey have generated 0.038 xG per set-piece attempt across their tournament history, the highest of any team playing today, vs the USA's 0.029. If Turkey take corners and free kicks in dangerous areas, that dead-ball advantage could matter even in a dead rubber.
Qualification scenarios: USA qualify with any result. Paraguay need a win or a draw if Australia lose.
Paraguay vs Australia: the perfect coin-flip
The model rates this 34.4% each way with a 31.3% draw. Mirror-image campaigns: Paraguay beat Turkey, lost to the USA. Australia beat Turkey, lost to the USA. Identical points.
But look closer. Paraguay's squad composite is 5.69, Australia's is 4.30. Paraguay's Elo (1833, rank 22) is 50 points above Australia's (1783, rank 26). The model should favour Paraguay, slightly. It does, but barely: the slight edge in home win probability (34.4% vs 33.2% in some model runs) reflects only a thin composite and Elo advantage, dampened by the draw probability.
The tactical mismatch is real. Paraguay play a balanced system (PPDA 14.2, moderate pressing). Australia are transition-heavy (PPDA 37.0, low engagement, counter-attacking). Australia's directness (7.2 yards per pass) matches Paraguay's (7.3). Both sides want to play on the break. Whoever controls the early tempo will force the other off script.
Australia's goalkeeper, Mathew Ryan (rating 0.852), is the highest-rated goalkeeper on the field in any of today's six matches. Paraguay's Carlos Coronel (0.451) is significantly lower. If this comes down to shot-stopping, Australia have an edge the model already prices in.
One of them advances, the other goes home.
Germany vs Ecuador: the three-way split
Germany are through with six points and a +7 goal difference after beating Curacao 7-1 and Ivory Coast 2-1. Ecuador lost to Ivory Coast 1-0 on Matchday 1, then drew Curacao 0-0 on Matchday 2. They sit on a single point.
The model gives Germany 40.4%, barely ahead of Ecuador at 31.2%, with a 28.4% draw. This is not the runaway it looks in the table. Ecuador's Elo (1933, rank 9) is actually 10 points higher than Germany's (1923, rank 11). On pure Elo, Ecuador are the better team.
The tactical fingerprints diverge sharply. Germany play a possession-dominant system: 63.6% possession, 4.4 yards per pass (the shortest on the card, indicating short, probing build-up), PPDA 17.8. Ecuador are transition-heavy: 47.1% possession, 7.9 yards per pass (the longest on the card, indicating direct counter-attacks), PPDA 16.5. This is a classic control-vs-counter setup.
Germany's squad composite (8.01) comfortably exceeds Ecuador's (5.34). Germany's goalkeeper, Marc-Andre ter Stegen (0.719), outrates Ecuador's Hernan Galindez (0.435). But Ecuador's draws suggest a team built to frustrate, and a draw would be enough for Ecuador to qualify alongside Germany (sending Ivory Coast through on points regardless of the other result only if Curacao beat Ivory Coast, which the model rates at 12.4%).
Curacao vs Ivory Coast: survival
Curacao lost 7-1 to Germany, then drew Ecuador 0-0. Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0, then lost 2-1 to Germany. The model gives Ivory Coast 63.5%, the clearest favourite of the day.
Ivory Coast's Elo (1676, rank 52) is the higher of the two. Ivory Coast play a possession-dominant system (58.2% possession, PPDA 13.7, the most aggressive press of any team today). Curacao's tactical data is sparse (no PPDA available), but their one competitive result (the 0-0 draw with Ecuador) came from sitting deep.
For Curacao, the smallest nation in the tournament, every match is already historic. But a win here would send them through to the knockout round at Ivory Coast's expense, a scenario the model rates at just 12.4%.
Netherlands vs Tunisia: the biggest call
The Netherlands drew Japan 2-2 on Matchday 1, then thrashed Sweden 5-1 on Matchday 2. Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden on Matchday 1, then lost to Japan 4-0 on Matchday 2. Tunisia have conceded nine goals and scored one in two matches. The model gives the Netherlands 58.5%, the strongest single-match favourite on the card.
The data backs it. Netherlands' Elo (1961, rank 8) exceeds Tunisia's (1636, rank 58) by 325 points, the widest gap on the card. Netherlands' squad composite (8.09) is more than double Tunisia's implied level. Netherlands play a structured press (PPDA 20.6, possession 53.7%), while Tunisia are pragmatic (PPDA 22.5, possession 49.4%).
Netherlands' goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen (0.542) is unspectacular on paper, but he conceded only two goals in the 2-2 draw with Japan. Tunisia's Aymen Dahmen (0.476) has faced 13 shots on target across two matches.
A win would give the Netherlands nine points from three matches. The only question is how they manage the game given they are already close to qualification (a draw or even a loss could still be enough depending on the Japan-Sweden result).
Japan vs Sweden: second place
Japan beat Tunisia 4-0 and drew the Netherlands 2-2. Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1 and lost 5-1 to the Netherlands. Both have quality attacking options. The model gives Japan 45.1%, Sweden 27.1%, with a 27.7% draw.
Japan's Elo (1904, rank 13) is 185 points above Sweden's (1719, rank 43). Japan's tactical fingerprint is interesting: a low-block system with 44.4% possession and a PPDA of 26.7 (passive press). They sit deep and counter. Sweden are even more transition-heavy: 36.2% possession, 31.2 PPDA (the least pressing team on the card), and 9.2 yards per pass (the most direct in the tournament). When Sweden have the ball, they launch it forward. When they do not, they do not press.
Sweden's squad composite (7.29) actually exceeds Japan's (5.80), driven by individual quality in attack (Isak, Kulusevski) and defence (Lindelof). Sweden's goalkeeper Robin Olsen (0.366) is the lowest-rated keeper on the field in any match today. Japan's Zion Suzuki (0.536) is solid.
Second place in Group F is on the line. The loser may still qualify as a third-place team, but the winner controls their bracket path. A draw would leave Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden on 5, 5, and 4 points respectively (assuming Netherlands beat Tunisia), creating a three-way race decided by goal difference.
Standard Pass $10 through the end of group stage. Every prediction frozen before kick-off. View pricing
Methodology: five-model ensemble (Elo, Dixon-Coles, hierarchical Poisson, player composite, anytime scorer), calibrated on 987 matches across 24 tournaments. Full methodology at /docs/methodology/.