Prévision vs résultat · Round of 32 · Match 7

Mexico vs Ecuador

2026-07-01

Le récapitulatif sera publié au coup de sifflet final. Quand ce match sera terminé, cette page montrera comment la prévision pré-match figée ci-dessous s'est comparée au résultat réel : Brier score, log loss et xG final vs xG prédit. En attendant, suivez le match en direct sur le suivi en direct.

Pre-match forecast

Mexico win
27.8%
Draw
34.1%
Ecuador win
38.1%
Mexico
0.68
expected
goals
Ecuador
0.81

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Mexico
8
G. Mora1'–1'

Scored the opening goal for Mexico, setting the tone for the match.

1goals

Match timeline

1'Mexico scores! G. Mora (19) finds the net after a sustained period of pressure.
8
Uriel Antuna

Scored a goal and was an active threat in attack, including from set pieces.

1goals1headers

Match timeline

8
Raúl Jiménez38'–38'

Scored a goal with a composed finish, extending Mexico's lead.

1goals

Match timeline

38'Mexico scores, assisted by Quiñones
7
Guillermo Ochoa

Made several crucial saves to maintain Mexico's lead and ensure defensive stability.

2saves

Match timeline

7
Carlos Acevedo

Made crucial saves, including a diving stop from Yeboah Zamora, to maintain Mexico's lead.

1saves

Match timeline

7
Roberto Alvarado

Provided a dangerous corner kick that created a significant goal-scoring opportunity for Mexico.

Match timeline

7
César Montes75'–82'

Produced a powerful header from a corner that forced a spectacular save, showing attacking threat from defense.

2headers

Match timeline

75'Mexico header from a corner saved by the Ecuador goalkeeper
82'Spectacular save by the Ecuador goalkeeper from a Mexico header
Ecuador
8
Hernán Galíndez75'–82'

Made several excellent and spectacular saves, preventing a heavier defeat for Ecuador.

3saves

Match timeline

75'Mexico header from a corner saved by the Ecuador goalkeeper
82'Spectacular save by the Ecuador goalkeeper from a Mexico header
7
Yeboah Zamora

Showed good individual skill, creating shooting opportunities and forcing saves from the Mexico goalkeeper.

6
Jordy Caicedo

Registered a shot on target that was saved by the Mexico goalkeeper, contributing to attacking efforts.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

3
Piero Hincapié108'–108'

Received a red card for involvement in a late-game confrontation, negatively impacting his team.

1 red

Match timeline

108'Red card shown after a confrontation between players

Match observations

  • The match was played in a vibrant atmosphere with a large and engaged crowd.
  • Mexico displayed strong attacking intent, creating numerous chances and converting two to secure a comfortable lead.
  • Ecuador showed flashes of individual brilliance but struggled to consistently break down the Mexican defence.

Comment lire ces résultats. Le Brier score et le log loss d'un seul match sont bruités : ce qui compte, c'est la calibration de la prévision sur de nombreux matchs. Ce récapitulatif par match est une ligne du tableau de calibration global à /docs/calibration/. La probabilité pré-match affichée ici est celle figée avant le coup d'envoi ; elle n'a jamais été recalculée en cours de match.