Round of 16 · Match 5

Scheduled
Portugal
:
Spain

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

Standard Pass for probabilities

Latest news & match context

Match conditions
Stage:
Round of 16 · Match 5
Date:
6 Jul
Venue:
AT&T Stadium, Dallas

a 29°C kickoff modestly suppresses expected scoring at this venue.

Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.

Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.

Le récapitulatif de calibration post-match est gratuit. Quand ce match sera terminé, le récapitulatif prévision-vs-résultat (probabilité pré-match comparée au résultat réel, Brier score, log loss et xG final vs prédit) sera publié sur la page de récapitulatif, en accès libre.

Standard Pass

The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Portugal v Spain plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

Get the Pass, $15.00

Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.

24h money-back, no questions asked·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.

Comment fonctionne la probabilité en direct. La prévision d'avant-match publiée est figée au verrouillage des compositions (T-1h) et ne change plus après le coup d'envoi ; le bilan d'après-match évalue ce chiffre figé face au résultat. La probabilité de victoire en direct affichée pendant le match est le même modèle, relu selon le score et le temps restant. Elle se rafraîchit environ une fois par minute, est toujours différée, et reste une mesure descriptive de recherche : ni un produit de pari, ni un prix d'aucune sorte. Voir /docs/methodology/ pour le cadre complet.