Round of 16 · Match 5

Scheduled
Portugal
:
Spain

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

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Latest news & match context

Match conditions
Stage:
Round of 16 · Match 5
Date:
6 Jul
Venue:
AT&T Stadium, Dallas

a 29°C kickoff modestly suppresses expected scoring at this venue.

Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.

Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.

La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.

Standard Pass

The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Portugal v Spain plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.