Prévision vs résultat · Round of 16 · Match 1

Paraguay vs France

2026-07-04

Le récapitulatif sera publié au coup de sifflet final. Quand ce match sera terminé, cette page montrera comment la prévision pré-match figée ci-dessous s'est comparée au résultat réel : Brier score, log loss et xG final vs xG prédit. En attendant, suivez le match en direct sur le suivi en direct.

Pre-match forecast

Paraguay win
7.9%
Draw
25.9%
France win
66.2%
Paraguay
0.55
expected
goals
France
1.55

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Paraguay
9
Desire Doue

Scored two crucial goals and displayed excellent dribbling and composure throughout the match.

4
Carlos Sanchez

Had a mixed performance in midfield, struggling with possession and giving the ball away, which limited his overall impact.

France
8
Marcus Thuram12'–40'

Scored a goal and provided a crucial assist, consistently making dangerous runs and contributing to France's attack.

1goals

Match timeline

12'Thuram rounds the goalkeeper but is flagged offside.
40'Marcus Thuram extends France's lead with a goal.
7
Lucas Digne17'–18'

Provided a reliable performance at left-back, combining defensive solidity with offensive contributions through runs and crosses.

1fouls won

Match timeline

17'A foul on Digne results in a free-kick for France.
18'Digne's free-kick strikes the defensive wall.
7
Kylian Mbappe

Was a constant threat with his pace and dribbling, creating opportunities despite his shots being blocked.

7
Maghnes Akliouche12'–26'

An energetic and influential presence in attack, creating opportunities and distributing the ball effectively.

1shots1on target1fouls won

Match timeline

12'Akliouche is brought down in the box, but no penalty is awarded.
26'Akliouche's shot for France is saved.
6
Warren Zaire-Emery

Contributed to midfield distribution and had an early shot, maintaining an average presence in the game.

Match observations

  • France delivered a dominant performance, controlling possession and creating numerous scoring opportunities throughout the match.
  • Paraguay struggled to convert their limited chances, often finding their shots blocked or saved by the French defence.
  • The match was largely one-sided, with France securing a comfortable 3-0 victory.

Comment lire ces résultats. Le Brier score et le log loss d'un seul match sont bruités : ce qui compte, c'est la calibration de la prévision sur de nombreux matchs. Ce récapitulatif par match est une ligne du tableau de calibration global à /docs/calibration/. La probabilité pré-match affichée ici est celle figée avant le coup d'envoi ; elle n'a jamais été recalculée en cours de match.