预测与结果对照 · Round of 16 · Match 1

Paraguay vs France

2026-07-04

回顾将在全场结束后发布。 比赛结束后, 本页将展示下方锁定的赛前预测与实际结果的对比: Brier score、log loss, 以及最终 xG 与预测 xG。在此之前, 可在以下页面实时关注 实时追踪.

Pre-match forecast

Paraguay win
7.9%
Draw
25.9%
France win
66.2%
Paraguay
0.55
expected
goals
France
1.55

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Paraguay
9
Desire Doue

Scored two crucial goals and displayed excellent dribbling and composure throughout the match.

4
Carlos Sanchez

Had a mixed performance in midfield, struggling with possession and giving the ball away, which limited his overall impact.

France
8
Marcus Thuram12'–40'

Scored a goal and provided a crucial assist, consistently making dangerous runs and contributing to France's attack.

1goals

Match timeline

12'Thuram rounds the goalkeeper but is flagged offside.
40'Marcus Thuram extends France's lead with a goal.
7
Lucas Digne17'–18'

Provided a reliable performance at left-back, combining defensive solidity with offensive contributions through runs and crosses.

1fouls won

Match timeline

17'A foul on Digne results in a free-kick for France.
18'Digne's free-kick strikes the defensive wall.
7
Kylian Mbappe

Was a constant threat with his pace and dribbling, creating opportunities despite his shots being blocked.

7
Maghnes Akliouche12'–26'

An energetic and influential presence in attack, creating opportunities and distributing the ball effectively.

1shots1on target1fouls won

Match timeline

12'Akliouche is brought down in the box, but no penalty is awarded.
26'Akliouche's shot for France is saved.
6
Warren Zaire-Emery

Contributed to midfield distribution and had an early shot, maintaining an average presence in the game.

Match observations

  • France delivered a dominant performance, controlling possession and creating numerous scoring opportunities throughout the match.
  • Paraguay struggled to convert their limited chances, often finding their shots blocked or saved by the French defence.
  • The match was largely one-sided, with France securing a comfortable 3-0 victory.

如何阅读本页。 单场比赛的 Brier 和 log-loss 波动较大, 重要的是预测在多场比赛中的整体校准表现。本页是汇总校准计分板中的一行, 位于 /docs/calibration/. 此处显示的赛前概率是开球前锁定的, 比赛期间从未更新。