Group I · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.
What decides it
Erling Haaland carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.0% vs 7.9%).
Off the pitch
Didier Deschamps (14 years in charge of France) vs Ståle Solbakken (6 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
France are the defending champions. That brings quality but also the weight of being everyone's scalp match.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for France or Norway.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 26 Jun
France and Norway both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, France minus Norway: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalO. Dembele· K. MbappeO. Dembele scores for France.7'
- 10'Yellow cardP. Berg· HoldingP. Berg is booked — Holding.
- GoalO. Dembele· K. MbappeO. Dembele scores for France.20'
- 21'GoalT. Aasgaard· A. SchjelderupT. Aasgaard scores for Norway.
- GoalO. Dembele· A. TchouameniO. Dembele scores for France.32'
- 46'SubstitutionF. Bjorkan· M. PedersenNorway change: M. Pedersen.
- 46'SubstitutionK. Thorstvedt· M. ThorsbyNorway change: M. Thorsby.
- 50'Penalty missedJ. Larsen· J. LarsenJ. Larsen can't beat the keeper from the spot.
- SubstitutionM. Olise· R. CherkiFrance change: R. Cherki.65'
- SubstitutionO. Dembele· B. BarcolaFrance change: B. Barcola.65'
- 66'SubstitutionH. Falchener· S. LangasNorway change: S. Langas.
- Yellow cardA. Tchouameni· RoughingA. Tchouameni is booked — Roughing.74'
- SubstitutionD. Upamecano· I. KonateFrance change: I. Konate.76'
- 83'SubstitutionO. Bobb· A. NusaNorway change: A. Nusa.
- 83'SubstitutionA. Schjelderup· J. HaugeNorway change: J. Hauge.
- SubstitutionJ. Kounde· M. GustoFrance change: M. Gusto.87'
- SubstitutionK. Mbappe· J. MatetaFrance change: J. Mateta.87'
- GoalD. Doue· B. BarcolaD. Doue scores for France.90'+4
Player involvement
France
Norway
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.