Group I · Matchday 3
أقوى مواجهة في اليوم بحسب مجموع تصنيف الفيفا متاحة مجانًا للجميع: التوقعات الكاملة وأداة المتابعة المباشرة الكاملة. كل المباريات الأخرى تتطلب Standard Pass. اطّلع على الـPass
Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.
What decides it
Erling Haaland carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.0% vs 7.9%).
Off the pitch
Didier Deschamps (14 years in charge of France) vs Ståle Solbakken (6 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
France are the defending champions. That brings quality but also the weight of being everyone's scalp match.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for France or Norway.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 26 Jun
France and Norway both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, France minus Norway: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalO. Dembele· K. MbappeO. Dembele scores for France.7'
- 10'Yellow cardP. Berg· HoldingP. Berg is booked — Holding.
- GoalO. Dembele· K. MbappeO. Dembele scores for France.20'
- 21'GoalT. Aasgaard· A. SchjelderupT. Aasgaard scores for Norway.
- GoalO. Dembele· A. TchouameniO. Dembele scores for France.32'
- 46'SubstitutionF. Bjorkan· M. PedersenNorway change: M. Pedersen.
- 46'SubstitutionK. Thorstvedt· M. ThorsbyNorway change: M. Thorsby.
- 50'Penalty missedJ. Larsen· J. LarsenJ. Larsen can't beat the keeper from the spot.
- SubstitutionM. Olise· R. CherkiFrance change: R. Cherki.65'
- SubstitutionO. Dembele· B. BarcolaFrance change: B. Barcola.65'
- 66'SubstitutionH. Falchener· S. LangasNorway change: S. Langas.
- Yellow cardA. Tchouameni· RoughingA. Tchouameni is booked — Roughing.74'
- SubstitutionD. Upamecano· I. KonateFrance change: I. Konate.76'
- 83'SubstitutionO. Bobb· A. NusaNorway change: A. Nusa.
- 83'SubstitutionA. Schjelderup· J. HaugeNorway change: J. Hauge.
- SubstitutionJ. Kounde· M. GustoFrance change: M. Gusto.87'
- SubstitutionK. Mbappe· J. MatetaFrance change: J. Mateta.87'
- GoalD. Doue· B. BarcolaD. Doue scores for France.90'+4
Player involvement
France
Norway
Pre-match forecast
goals
الاحتمالية المنشورة لهذه المباراة تُثبَّت عند تأكيد التشكيلة (قبل ضربة البداية بساعة تقريبًا) ولا تتحدَّث بعدها. هذا هو الرقم الذي تحاسبه المراجعة بعد المباراة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة في قسم البث المباشر تقدير منفصل ومتأخر ووصفي؛ ولا تحل محل التوقع المنشور.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.