Group L · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Croatia's high press against Panama's transition game. Panama will try to absorb the press and release quick, so the battle is in the first 10 seconds after each turnover. Croatia will expect to hold 54% possession. Panama need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Croatia press high (PPDA 20.4). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Panama will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Ante Budimir's 9.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Panama's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Ivan Perišić. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Croatia or Panama.
- Stage:
- Group L · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 23 Jun
Croatia and Panama both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Croatia minus Panama: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- SubstitutionP. Musa· A. BudimirCroatia change: A. Budimir.46'
- SubstitutionJ. Gvardiol· A. KramaricCroatia change: A. Kramaric.46'
- GoalA. Budimir· J. StanisicA. Budimir scores for Croatia.54'
- 61'Yellow cardY. Barcenas· RoughingY. Barcenas is booked — Roughing.
- SubstitutionM. Pasalic· L. SucicCroatia change: L. Sucic.72'
- SubstitutionM. Kovacic· P. SucicCroatia change: P. Sucic.72'
- 77'SubstitutionJ. Ramos· C. WatermanPanama change: C. Waterman.
- SubstitutionL. Modric· M. PasalicCroatia change: M. Pasalic.81'
- 83'SubstitutionJ. Fajardo· A. LondonoPanama change: A. Londono.
- 90'SubstitutionC. Blackman· E. DavisPanama change: E. Davis.
- 90'SubstitutionY. Barcenas· T. RodriguezPanama change: T. Rodriguez.
- Yellow cardP. Sucic· TrippingP. Sucic is booked — Tripping.90'+2
Player involvement
Croatia
Panama
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–014.0%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.