Group K · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Colombia's pragmatic setup will need to hold shape against DR Congo's direct transition game. The risk for Colombia: getting caught between attacking and defending. Colombia will expect to hold 53% possession. DR Congo need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
DR Congo will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Colombia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Yoane Wissa (7.9%) and James Rodríguez (8.5%).
Off the pitch
DR Congo travel 13,818km, 4x Colombia's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
The model gives DR Congo just 11.6% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for DR Congo or Colombia.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 23 Jun
DR Congo
DR Congo come in at close to full strength.
Colombia
Colombia come in at close to full strength.
DR Congo and Colombia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, DR Congo minus Colombia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- SubstitutionN. Mukau· N. SadikiDR Congo change: N. Sadiki.46'
- 56'Yellow cardJ. Lucumi· RoughingJ. Lucumi is booked — Roughing.
- SubstitutionC. Bakambu· S. BanzaDR Congo change: S. Banza.57'
- 58'SubstitutionL. Suarez· J. CordobaColombia change: J. Cordoba.
- 58'SubstitutionJ. Rodriguez· J. QuinteroColombia change: J. Quintero.
- SubstitutionA. Masuaku· J. KayembeDR Congo change: J. Kayembe.72'
- SubstitutionE. Kayembe· C. PickelDR Congo change: C. Pickel.72'
- 76'GoalD. Munoz· J. QuinteroD. Munoz scores for Colombia.
- 77'SubstitutionJ. Arias· R. RiosColombia change: R. Rios.
- SubstitutionS. Moutoussamy· N. MbukuDR Congo change: N. Mbuku.82'
- Yellow cardC. Pickel· Unsportsmanlike conductC. Pickel is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.90'+3
- 90'+4Yellow cardJ. Lerma· RoughingJ. Lerma is booked — Roughing.
Player involvement
DR Congo
Colombia
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–119.5%
- 0–215.8%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–38.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.