Group E · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Curaçao's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Ecuador's direct transition game. The risk for Curaçao: getting caught between attacking and defending.
What decides it
Ecuador will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Jürgen Locadia's 9.2% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Ecuador's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model gives Curaçao just 6.1% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Curaçao or Ecuador.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 20 Jun
Curaçao and Ecuador both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Curaçao minus Ecuador: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardJ. Alcivar· TrippingJ. Alcivar is booked — Tripping.38'
- 39'Yellow cardL. Bacuna· FoulL. Bacuna is booked — Foul.
- SubstitutionJ. Alcivar· K. RodriguezCuraçao change: K. Rodriguez.46'
- 53'Yellow cardJ. Bacuna· FoulJ. Bacuna is booked — Foul.
- 56'Yellow cardL. Comenencia· RoughingL. Comenencia is booked — Roughing.
- SubstitutionP. Estupinan· N. AnguloCuraçao change: N. Angulo.70'
- 75'Yellow cardJ. Gaari· RoughingJ. Gaari is booked — Roughing.
- 75'SubstitutionJ. Bacuna· K. GorreEcuador change: K. Gorre.
- 76'SubstitutionD. Fonville· R. van EijmaEcuador change: R. van Eijma.
- 76'SubstitutionT. Chong· J. MargarithaEcuador change: J. Margaritha.
- SubstitutionA. Franco· A. PreciadoCuraçao change: A. Preciado.83'
- 83'SubstitutionJ. Locadia· G. KastaneerEcuador change: G. Kastaneer.
- 84'SubstitutionL. Comenencia· G. RoemeratoeEcuador change: G. Roemeratoe.
- SubstitutionJ. Yeboah· J. CaicedoCuraçao change: J. Caicedo.89'
- 90'+1Yellow cardG. Kastaneer· RoughingG. Kastaneer is booked — Roughing.
Player involvement
Curaçao
Ecuador
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–218.6%
- 0–116.7%
- 0–313.5%
- 0–08.2%
- 0–47.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Curaçao win5.8%
- Draw· realised19.6%
- Ecuador win74.6%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.