Group A · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
South Africa
1:1
Czech Republic

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Live descriptive stats

South AfricaCzech Republic
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
South Africa0.781.02+0.24
Czech Republic1.261.37+0.11

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
14
17
Shots on target
3
4
Possession (%)
38%
62%
Corners
5
5
Fouls
12
10
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

South Africa's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Czech Republic's direct transition game. The risk for South Africa: getting caught between attacking and defending. Czech Republic's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against South Africa's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.9) creates a clear territory question: can Czech Republic force errors high up, or will South Africa play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Czech Republic will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Evidence Makgopa (3.7%) and Patrik Schick (6.2%).

Off the pitch

Hugo Broos (5 years in charge of South Africa) vs Miroslav Koubek (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

A Group A fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for South Africa or Czech Republic.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 2
Date:
18 Jun
Availability

South Africa

South Africa come in at close to full strength.

Czech Republic

Czech Republic come in at close to full strength.

What it means

South Africa and Czech Republic both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En directStatistiques descriptives et probabilité de victoire en direct (différée) · mise à jour toutes les ~30 secondes

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
South Africa (above the line)Czech Republic (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 6' · M. SadilekGoal, 83' · T. Mokoena

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, South Africa minus Czech Republic: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

South AfricaCzech Republic
  • GoalM. Sadilek· A. SojkaM. Sadilek scores for South Africa.6'
  • 33'Yellow cardT. MokoenaT. Mokoena is booked.
  • 40'Yellow cardT. Mbatha· RoughingT. Mbatha is booked — Roughing.
  • 46'SubstitutionJ. Adams· R. MofokengCzech Republic change: R. Mofokeng.
  • SubstitutionV. Darida· P. SulcSouth Africa change: P. Sulc.55'
  • SubstitutionA. Sojka· J. ZelenySouth Africa change: J. Zeleny.55'
  • 66'SubstitutionI. Rayners· E. MakgopaCzech Republic change: E. Makgopa.
  • SubstitutionA. Hlozek· L. ProvodSouth Africa change: L. Provod.67'
  • SubstitutionM. Sadilek· T. SoucekSouth Africa change: T. Soucek.67'
  • Yellow cardL. Krejci· TrippingL. Krejci is booked — Tripping.75'
  • SubstitutionL. Cerv· D. ZimaSouth Africa change: D. Zima.78'
  • 83'Penalty scoredT. MokoenaT. Mokoena converts from the spot for Czech Republic.
  • 84'SubstitutionT. Maseko· K. SebelebeleCzech Republic change: K. Sebelebele.

Player involvement

South Africa

M. Sadilek6' Goal · 67' On
AA. Sojka6' Assist · 55' On
L. Krejci75' Yellow card

Czech Republic

T. Mokoena33' Yellow card · 83' Penalty scored
T. Mbatha40' Yellow card
Modèle pré-matchFigé avant le coup d'envoi

Pre-match forecast

South Africa win
18.5%
Draw
28.4%
Czech Republic win
53.0%
South Africa
0.78
expected
goals
Czech Republic
1.26

La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–1
    15.6%
  • 0–0
    13.7%
  • 1–1
    13.5%
  • 0–2
    10.4%
  • 1–0
    9.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • South Africa win
    21.2%
  • Draw· realised
    27.2%
  • Czech Republic win
    51.7%
Brier score
0.842
Log loss
1.303
xG (final / predicted)
1.02 / 0.82 · South Africa
1.37 / 1.37 · Czech Republic
P(realised outcome)
27.2%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Récapitulatif complet prévision vs résultat →

Comment fonctionne la probabilité en direct. La prévision d'avant-match publiée est figée au verrouillage des compositions (T-1h) et ne change plus après le coup d'envoi ; le bilan d'après-match évalue ce chiffre figé face au résultat. La probabilité de victoire en direct affichée pendant le match est le même modèle, relu selon le score et le temps restant. Elle se rafraîchit environ une fois par minute, est toujours différée, et reste une mesure descriptive de recherche : ni un produit de pari, ni un prix d'aucune sorte. Voir /docs/methodology/ pour le cadre complet.