Group A · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
South Africa's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Czech Republic's direct transition game. The risk for South Africa: getting caught between attacking and defending. Czech Republic's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against South Africa's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.9) creates a clear territory question: can Czech Republic force errors high up, or will South Africa play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Czech Republic will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Evidence Makgopa (3.7%) and Patrik Schick (6.2%).
Off the pitch
Hugo Broos (5 years in charge of South Africa) vs Miroslav Koubek (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
A Group A fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for South Africa or Czech Republic.
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 18 Jun
South Africa
South Africa come in at close to full strength.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic come in at close to full strength.
South Africa and Czech Republic both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, South Africa minus Czech Republic: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalM. Sadilek· A. SojkaM. Sadilek scores for South Africa.6'
- 33'Yellow cardT. MokoenaT. Mokoena is booked.
- 40'Yellow cardT. Mbatha· RoughingT. Mbatha is booked — Roughing.
- 46'SubstitutionJ. Adams· R. MofokengCzech Republic change: R. Mofokeng.
- SubstitutionV. Darida· P. SulcSouth Africa change: P. Sulc.55'
- SubstitutionA. Sojka· J. ZelenySouth Africa change: J. Zeleny.55'
- 66'SubstitutionI. Rayners· E. MakgopaCzech Republic change: E. Makgopa.
- SubstitutionA. Hlozek· L. ProvodSouth Africa change: L. Provod.67'
- SubstitutionM. Sadilek· T. SoucekSouth Africa change: T. Soucek.67'
- Yellow cardL. Krejci· TrippingL. Krejci is booked — Tripping.75'
- SubstitutionL. Cerv· D. ZimaSouth Africa change: D. Zima.78'
- 83'Penalty scoredT. MokoenaT. Mokoena converts from the spot for Czech Republic.
- 84'SubstitutionT. Maseko· K. SebelebeleCzech Republic change: K. Sebelebele.
Player involvement
South Africa
Czech Republic
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilità pubblicata per questa partita è fissata alla conferma delle formazioni (≈1 ora prima del calcio d'inizio) e non si aggiorna più. È il numero di cui il riepilogo post-partita rende conto. La probabilità di vittoria live nella sezione Live è una stima separata, in differita e descrittiva; non sostituisce la previsione pubblicata.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.6%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–09.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- South Africa win21.2%
- Draw· realised27.2%
- Czech Republic win51.7%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.