Pronóstico frente a resultado · Round of 32 · Match 4

Brazil vs Japan

2026-06-29

El resumen se publica al pitido final. Cuando este partido termine, esta página mostrará cómo el pronóstico previo congelado se comportó frente al resultado real: Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a xG predicho. Hasta entonces, síguelo en vivo en el seguimiento en vivo.

Pre-match forecast

Brazil win
62.4%
Draw
25.0%
Japan win
12.6%
Brazil
1.58
expected
goals
Japan
0.67

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Brazil
8
Casemiro56'–60'

Scored Brazil's vital equalizing goal with a header, showcasing his aerial threat and leadership.

2goals

Match timeline

56'Casemiro scored Brazil's equalizing goal.
60'Casemiro (Brazil #8) scores for Brazil.
8
Martinelli81'–81'

Scored the decisive winning goal for Brazil with a clinical finish from inside the penalty area.

1goals

Match timeline

81'Martinelli (Brazil #22) scores for Brazil.
7
Vinicius Jr.

Displayed excellent dribbling skills, beating a defender and having a powerful shot denied by the goalkeeper and the post.

6
Cunha10'–10'

Had an early shot on target but did not contribute further to the scoreline.

1shots1on target

Match timeline

10'Cunha's shot
6
Rayan80'–80'

Had a shot on goal that was deflected, showing some attacking intent in his limited time on the pitch.

1shots

Match timeline

80'Rayan (Brazil) has a shot deflected over the bar.
Japan
8
Suzuki10'–73'

Made several crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Brazil from scoring more goals and keeping Japan competitive.

3saves

Match timeline

10'Suzuki (Japan GK) makes a save from Cunha's shot.
40'Suzuki (Japan GK) makes an excellent save from Guimaraes' header.
73'Suzuki (Japan GK) saves Vinicius Jr.'s shot onto the post.
8
Sano23'–23'

Scored Japan's only goal with a composed finish after a strong attacking run, giving his team a surprising lead.

1goals

Match timeline

23'Sano (Japan #10) scores for Japan.
4
Tomiyasu

Was directly beaten by Vinicius Jr. in a dangerous attacking sequence, highlighting a defensive vulnerability.

Match timeline

Match observations

  • The match between Brazil and Japan concluded with a 2-1 victory for Brazil.
  • The atmosphere in the Japanese fan zone was one of tension and disappointment, reflecting their team's loss.
  • In contrast, Brazilian supporters were seen in a state of euphoria, celebrating their team's triumph.

Cómo leer esto. El Brier y el log-loss de un solo partido son ruidosos; lo que importa es cómo calibra el pronóstico a lo largo de muchos partidos. Este resumen por partido es una fila del marcador de calibración agregado en /docs/calibration/. La probabilidad previa al partido que se muestra aquí es la que se congeló antes del saque inicial; nunca se actualizó durante el juego.