Group D · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Paraguay's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Australia's direct transition game. The risk for Paraguay: getting caught between attacking and defending. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against Australia's deeper build-up (PPDA 37.0) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will Australia play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Australia will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Antonio Sanabria carries the marginally higher scoring probability (9.4% vs 5.3%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group D fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Paraguay or Australia.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 25 Jun
Paraguay
Paraguay come in at close to full strength.
Australia
Australia come in at close to full strength.
Paraguay and Australia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Paraguay minus Australia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- SubstitutionA. Maidana· MauricioParaguay change: Mauricio.46'
- 46'Yellow cardJ. Irvine· TrippingJ. Irvine is booked — Tripping.
- 58'SubstitutionC. Volpato· A. HrusticAustralia change: A. Hrustic.
- SubstitutionG. Avalos· A. ArceParaguay change: A. Arce.67'
- Yellow cardD. GomezD. Gomez is booked.77'
- SubstitutionO. Alderete· J. CanaleParaguay change: J. Canale.84'
- 84'SubstitutionJ. Irvine· P. Okon-EngstlerAustralia change: P. Okon-Engstler.
- 84'SubstitutionN. Irankunda· T. YengiAustralia change: T. Yengi.
- SubstitutionD. Gomez· D. BobadillaParaguay change: D. Bobadilla.90'+2
- SubstitutionM. Galarza· J. AlonsoParaguay change: J. Alonso.90'+2
Player involvement
Paraguay
Australia
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–020.8%
- 0–116.1%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.7%
- 0–27.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Paraguay win26.9%
- Draw· realised32.6%
- Australia win40.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.