Group J · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Argentina
2:0
Austria

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Live descriptive stats

ArgentinaAustria
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Argentina1.612.65+1.04
Austria0.600.50−0.10

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
12
6
Shots on target
5
1
Possession (%)
54%
46%
Corners
1
3
Fouls
13
13
Yellow cards
2
2
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Argentina want to build from the back; Austria press high to prevent exactly that. If Argentina play through the press they'll find dangerous space. If they don't, turnovers come in costly areas. Argentina will expect to hold 59% possession. Austria need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Argentina's possession game (59% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Austria press high (PPDA 17.0). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Lionel Messi carries the marginally higher scoring probability (9.8% vs 6.2%).

Off the pitch

Lionel Scaloni (8 years in charge of Argentina) vs Ralf Rangnick (4 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Argentina are the defending champions. That brings quality but also the weight of being everyone's scalp match.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 2
Date:
22 Jun
Availability

Argentina

Argentina come in at close to full strength.

Austria

Austria come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Argentina and Austria both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Argentina (above the line)Austria (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 38' · L. MessiGoal, 90' · L. Messi

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Argentina minus Austria: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

ArgentinaAustria
  • Penalty missedL. Messi· L. MessiL. Messi can't beat the keeper from the spot.9'
  • GoalL. Messi· F. MedinaL. Messi scores for Argentina.38'
  • 40'Yellow cardS. Posch· Unsportsmanlike conductS. Posch is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • SubstitutionC. Romero· N. OtamendiArgentina change: N. Otamendi.57'
  • SubstitutionT. Almada· J. AlvarezArgentina change: J. Alvarez.64'
  • SubstitutionL. Martinez· N. GonzalezArgentina change: N. Gonzalez.65'
  • 67'SubstitutionD. Alaba· M. FriedlAustria change: M. Friedl.
  • 68'SubstitutionS. Posch· A. PrassAustria change: A. Prass.
  • 68'SubstitutionP. Wanner· M. ArnautovicAustria change: M. Arnautovic.
  • Yellow cardF. Medina· Unsportsmanlike conductF. Medina is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.76'
  • 76'Yellow cardK. Laimer· Unsportsmanlike conductK. Laimer is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • 78'SubstitutionR. Schmid· P. WimmerAustria change: P. Wimmer.
  • SubstitutionR. de Paul· L. ParedesArgentina change: L. Paredes.82'
  • SubstitutionF. Medina· N. TagliaficoArgentina change: N. Tagliafico.82'
  • 85'SubstitutionM. Gregoritsch· C. ChukwuemekaAustria change: C. Chukwuemeka.
  • Yellow cardL. Paredes· RoughingL. Paredes is booked — Roughing.90'+2
  • GoalL. MessiL. Messi scores for Argentina.90'+5

Player involvement

Argentina

L. Messi9' Penalty missed · 38' Goal · 90'+5 Goal
AF. Medina38' Assist · 76' Yellow card · 82' On
L. Paredes82' Off · 90'+2 Yellow card

Austria

S. Posch40' Yellow card · 68' On
K. Laimer76' Yellow card
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

Argentina win
65.1%
Draw
25.7%
Austria win
9.2%
Argentina
1.61
expected
goals
Austria
0.60

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    17.0%
  • 2–0
    14.2%
  • 0–0
    11.6%
  • 1–1
    11.3%
  • 2–1
    8.5%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.